DRV: German cereals harvest lower again in 2019 - wheat and corn weaker In its most recent issue of July, the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) once again estimated that German grain crops were 46.5 million tonnes lower than in the previous month. Compared to the long-term average, approx. 3% less threshing. The decisive reason is the dry phase in the month of June. Below that, the yield per hectare suffered considerably. Wheat and corn are particularly affected. The average yield is estimated at 72.2 dt / ha. Although the harvest in 2019 is +22.5% higher than in the previous year, the previous dry year does not provide any meaningful yardstick for the assessment. At 23.85 million tonnes, wheat accounts for more than 50% of the total harvest. Measured against previous harvests of just under 26 million tonnes, this year's result remains around 7.5% below the multi-year average. Measured against earlier land yields of around 80 dt / ha, the 77 dt / ha remain below average. At barely 12 million tonnes, barley is ranked 2 in the importance of cereals.Increased acreage and higher-than-average yield led to an increase in supply of +6.6% . Winter barley scored particularly well with area yields in the upper midfield. In contrast, the spring barley has suffered more severely from the June drought. However, there are differences between the south and the northeast. The forecast for the corn harvest was reduced again to 4.1 million t. Overall, the result should be -4.7% lower than the 5-year average. But there is still time until the corn harvest. An increased acreage and above-average yields in the case of rye contribute to the harvest being rated +6.4% above the multi-year average. In contrast, triticale drops significantly at -7.3% . The basis for the DRV estimate is the area survey of the Federal Statistical Office of 13 May 2019 and the own DRV earnings estimates in the individual regions.The estimation errors are getting smaller and smaller, but one or the other surprise may still be outstanding.
