IGC predicts higher soybean harvest 2020/21 and slightly improved supply situation The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the soybean harvest of the 2020/21 marketing year to be 7.4% higher than in the weak previous year. The production level is again in the multi-year trend. The main polluters are the two largest growing regions, Brazil and the USA . In particular, the United States is expected to have at least a normal harvest on an enlarged area. The global production result is estimated at 366 million tons ; consumption is expected to increase to 365 million tons. This leaves little to add to the inventory. The overhang amounts are sufficient for 40 days. The US soybean crop was characterized by a rainy sowing period in the current year, which led to reduced acreage and delayed order dates. The harvest result was correspondingly poor at 96 million t .However, the high excess stocks as a result of China's reluctance to buy have contributed to an adequate supply situation. There has recently been an increase in demand. The background is the lack of dried corn stillage (DDGS) as a result of the sharp decline in ethanol production. The slump in prices for (bio) fuels makes bioethanol production uneconomical. For the upcoming marketing year, a US soybean harvest of approx. 116 million t expected. One assumes an enlarged acreage and average yields. The ongoing Brazilian soybean harvest is coming to an end. The multiple projections assume a record harvest of 126 million tons. Heavy rains and docker strikes have contributed to the fact that the transport to the ports has stalled again and again. The Argentine soybean harvest is estimated at just under 54 million tons. Increased export taxes and obstacles to road transport as a result of the coronavirus pandemic lead to bottlenecks in the outflow of goods.In addition, a large oil mill has shut down due to a lack of manpower. As a result, Argentinian soybean meal exports are severely restricted. Soybean meal prices are characterized by strong price fluctuations. Intermittent delivery bottlenecks and supply fears due to the restrictions caused by the virus pandemic are the causes. However, there can be no question of a fundamental supply crisis. Therefore, in the long run, a price reduction at a reduced course level can be assumed.
