IGC preview confirms tight global grain supply in 2018/19, wheat balance 2019/20 at a slightly higher level. If the market report of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) for "shut down" in Jan 2018 fails, the reporting of the International Grains Council (IGC) is gaining relatively more importance. Both institutions deal with the global supply situation on the cereals market For the grain year 2018/19, the IGC updates its reporting compared to the previous year. The global grain harvest is estimated at 2,089 million tonnes higher than in November 2018. Compared to the previous year, a decrease of 13 million t is estimated. The global grain consumption of the IGC amounts to 2,137 million t . 30 million higher than in the previous year. Consumption is thus higher than the current harvest Accordingly, the calculated final stocks fall by more than 50 million t to a value that was last reached in 2015/16.This again confirms the scarce supply situation in this marketing year compared to previous years. The global wheat balance in 2018/19 plays a key role in the reduction of final stocks. The worldwide wheat harvest falls with 737 million . t 30 million t smaller than in the previous year. The main causes are the EU with approx. -14 million tons , Russia with another -14 million tons and Australia with -5 million tons . Only in the USA was a bit more wheat harvested. Global wheat consumption is estimated at 745 million tons or approx. 4 million t more than in the previous year. Inventories fall to 263 million tons The global corn crop estimates the IGC by 28 million tons higher to 1,076 million tons. Larger harvests were achieved, especially in Ukraine with +11.5 million tonnes .The EU maize harvest should be rated slightly better. Corn consumption is rising by approx. 38 million tonnes to a total result of 1,109 million tonnes. In this case too, the use of maize exceeds the result of the current harvest, resulting in a reduction of approx. 33 million t. The IGC estimate provides updated benchmarks in an overall market that can serve as a guide to future market supply. For the year 2019/20 , the IGC has published an early projection for global wheat supply . The harvest should be 14 million t higher . Decisive are the larger acreage and the assumption of a multi-year average yield . Nevertheless, inventories are to remain largely unchanged , because the additional consumption absorbs the increase in production. This would not significantly improve the supply situation in the coming year.The relatively early estimate is still to be considered with some reservations regarding weather conditions and trade disputes.
