Chinese and Europeans are cutting down pig stocks, USA are faltering - Why? The most recent surveys in China show a reduction in the number of pigs by -2% overall , in the sows -3.9%. The main cause is the spreading African swine fever, which has now reached more than half of the country and, more recently, a southern Chinese province. In addition to the primarily affected backyard and Kleinhaltungen it has recently hygienically better equipped large stocks with approx. 20,000 animals caught. The pork deficit Chi nas is increasing. As a result of restricted trade, individual regions (including major port cities) are not adequately supplied.The livestock census results for the EU suggest that pigmeat production will increase by approx. -1% will go back. In addition to the high feed costs, the fear of ASP also plays a role. In Germany sow farmers are additionally unsettled by the discussion about animal husbandry. The exact opposite happens in the US. The last cattle count showed a 3% increase in pig herds, with the result that US pork production is expected to increase by at least 5% in 2019 . The US pig herds have already increased by approx. 15% increased. The American readiness to recharge is all the more astonishing, as currently high losses in the American pig fattening of an average of $ 30 to $ 40 per pig are generated.Anyone who thinks that the futures prices for pigs in the basement in 2019 go down in the basement is wrong. The prices for the months of May to July rates between 1.40 to 1.50 € / kg , by American standards , well average prices. What is behind it? In the relevant commentaries on the US share price development, speculation about an ASP- related higher import demand in China repeatedly crops up. The main EU supplier will be able to deliver less because of reduced pork production . It can not be ruled out that ASP will continue to spread in the EU's main production centers , which could then lead to a serious export stop.Just how close the world trade in pork is, is shown by the following calculation: Should a supply deficit with pork in China only increase by 5% as a result of the AFP, approx. 3 million tonnes of pork are also imported . In the face of world trade of approx. 8.5 million tonnes per year would require approx. 35% more pork will be provided. Where should so much goods come from and on such short notice? The above constellation could lead to a shortage of world trade and higher international prices . Even if the US only provides limited supplies directly to China because of Chinese punitive tariffs, US exports still benefit from rising international export earnings.
