USDA: Preview of the US Pork Market The Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a corrected preview of the US pork market on May 18, 2020. The Covid19 pandemic has caused significant drops in pork production, processing and consumption. In April 2020 alone , production fell by approx. 11% back compared to last year. The beef industry was hit even worse with a drop of -21%. At the beginning of May, the slaughter capacity was just under 60% . As a result of the pandemic, pork production is estimated to be only 12.4 million tonnes in 2020, just under 6% below the previous month's estimate in April and 1% below the previous year's result. For the first quarter of 2021 , the USDA expects a decrease of 5% compared to the same period in the previous year. The increased sow slaughtering suggests a significant decrease in the pig population.Domestic consumption is expected to fall by 5% compared to the previous year. The PKV drops from 23.8 kg to 22.5 kg . However, consumer prices are expected to increase in 2020. US exports in the first quarter of 2020 have reached record levels. Deliveries to China have more than quintupled and now account for 30% of US exports. A Covid-related decline in an as yet unpredictable size is expected for the second quarter . For the second half of 2020 , the USDA anticipates slight increases of between 3 and 5% over the previous year's export. In the coming year 2021, rough 2% increases are predicted. However, the assumptions remain uncertain. The average pig prices of all marketing categories are in the 1stHalf of 2020 to which the level of just over 1 € / kg fell . For the barbecue season in the third quarter , slightly improved prices of around € 1.20 / kg are expected. In late autumn / winter 2020 , however, a seasonal decline is expected. Only in the new year will there be hope for higher pig prices.
