USDA preview of the milk market 2023 The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased production in the major countries by 1.1% in its semi-annual July estimate of the global milk market 2023. The previous year 2022 was characterized by stagnation, mainly caused by high feed costs and other production burdens. Regionally different production developments In the world's largest cow's milk production area , the EU-27, the delivery volume of 144 million t is expected to fall slightly compared to the previous year. Declining numbers of animals are no longer offset by corresponding increases in performance. In the USA, the second largest production area, an increase to 103.6 million t or almost 1% is assumed. Both a slight increase in the number of cows and the milk yield contribute to this. India continues its usual annual increases of at least 2.5% to 99.5 million tons of cow's milk production (excluding buffalo milk). The result is mainly due to inventory increases; the average milk yield is 1,600 kg per cow.The buffalo milk production is estimated at 95 million tons. Despite being limited to low-yield locations in the north and west of the country, China's milk production is steadily being pushed forward. In the current year, around 41 million tons are to be achieved with an increasing number of cows and milk yield. That would be an increase of 4.6% compared to the previous year. In Russia , milk production at 32 million tons (roughly the same as German production) is progressing only moderately, despite the country's size. Previously rising cow numbers are stagnating. The average milk yield is 5,000 kg. A significant proportion of the consumption of dairy products comes from imports from neighboring Belarus. The world's largest export region of dairy products, New Zealand, has been reaching its capacity limits for several years. The two islands are busy. The number of cows grazing all year round is declining, only increases in performance are helping to maintain the production volume. After the dry previous year, a recovery of 2% is expected in 2023. In the other smaller production areas, increases in production are largely offset by decreases.Consumption habits for milk and dairy products range from an 85% share of drinking milk consumption in India to a focus on milk powder consumption in China. Cheese is the sales hit all over the world. Production and consumption continuously show above-average growth rates. The main production and consumption area is the EU-27. The USA ranks second with additional import requirements. The versatile product is increasingly in demand in many other countries with high and rising incomes. On the other hand, as an open fat, butter does not have a favorable consumer image in high-income industrialized countries. The situation is different in India, where butter is mainly used in pure fat form as a preserved milk product that can be stored. Whole milk powder is concentrated in two locations: on the production side, New Zealand and China are leaders; the EU-27 and Brazil follow in lower positions. On the consumption side, China is at the top. The reason for this distribution is the high transport and storage capacity in regions far from consumers.Skimmed milk powder is primarily a by-product of butter production and, depending on the processing, is used as animal feed and food. The main producers with an export surplus are the EU and the USA; India also produces and consumes considerable quantities. Skimmed milk powder is in demand from a large number of importing countries. International trade in dairy products New Zealand is the world's leading exporter of dairy products. 95% of milk production is sold in processed form on international markets. More than 50% of this is whole milk powder, most of which finds its way to China. Butter, cheese and skimmed milk powder are heading in the same direction in Southeast Asia. The second largest export country is the EU-27 with a focus on cheese exports. SMP is also one of the important export goods. On the other hand, VMP and butter represent only a small market segment. China and the northern countries of Africa and the Middle East are the main buyers. The USA in 3rd place mainly exports SMP and cheese.An important recipient is Mexico. On the import side , China stands out. Previously usual increases in milk powder imports are increasingly being replaced by cheese and butter imports. Russia's imports come mainly from Belarus. International trade in dairy products has been slowing down in recent years as Chinese demand has become more restrained.
