USDA: global pork production rises by 2.3% in 2018, beef by 4% In its biannual preview of global meat production in 2018, the US Department of Agriculture estimates a significant increase of 2.2% yoy. The largest increases are achieved in the beef and pork sector. The broiler range lags behind due to the problems with the poultry virus. The beef sector is led by the USA with approx. 12.6 million t, which after a few years of stagnation now show growth rates again. In second place is Brazil , which is back to the production levels of 4 years ago.The third-tier EU needs to further reduce beef production to 7.85 million tonnes due to falling numbers of cows. Australia is starting to rebuild after the drought-driven sharp declines in production, but has not yet reached its baseline 4 years ago. Overall, world beef production will increase by 2.4% to 63 million tonnes . International trade in beef is expected to continue in 2018. On the export side, Brazil, India and Australia are the priority areas of origin. When importing China continues to attract attention. The Middle Kingdom has tripled its beef imports in the last 4 years. High income earners in port-related locations are increasingly switching from pork and poultry to beef.The pork sector is expected to grow by 2.3% to 113.4 million tonnes worldwide. The driving forces are the USA and China, while production in the EU is more or less stagnant. After several years of decline, Chinese pig farming will not reach its production levels in 2014, with 54.6 million tonnes of original production. The restructuring of backyard and livestock farming from densely populated areas and water-prone areas to industrial production facilities in rural areas is still in full swing. A massive price collapse will accelerate the operational tasks on the one hand, but at least slow down the newbuilds. The imports will also be reset in 2018.The US is currently experiencing its 5th consecutive year of annual growth rates of between 2.5% and 5%. While domestic demand has taken hold in the past, the increased supply is now overburdening consumption. Third country sales to Mexico and China, the largest customers, are in decline. Historic low prices of the equivalent of € 0.83 / kg lead to significant losses in the US pig industry. Brazil with 3 million tons and K anada with 2 million tons are also still on the rise of pigmeat production, both regions are dependent on the export and share with the competing United States the problem of current low prices .Russia has increased significantly over the last 8 years, increasing its pork production by 50% and getting close to self-sufficiency. The chronic problem of African swine fever and current low prices are currently giving Russian pig farmers a hard time. The growth rates are smaller. The pork market in the EU stagnates at 112% self-sufficiency. The increased sales of the previous years to third countries is noticeably lower, so that the previously favorable prices are now a thing of the past.The former momentum in the global pork trade will not continue in 2018; on the contrary, it is to be expected with noticeable declines, emanating from the first line of China. The above-average growth rates in the chicken market have declined significantly. For 2018, an increase of 1.9% to 92.5 million t is expected. The leading producer USA can supply its production with approx. 19 million tons are currently in production, while Brazil is restricting production with 13.3 million tons. China, with 11.7 million tonnes, has also reduced its broiler production by more than 10% for several years due to a decline in domestic demand.The poultry meat trade has stagnated for several years. Background is the problem with the different dangerous variants of the poultry virus.
