Jan-2021 USDA: Global pork production will rise again in 2021. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published a new estimate of global pork production in major countries for the year 2021 in its quarterly Jan. 2021 issue. Although production remains at -8.1% down on 2018, but increased compared to last year for the first time by approx. 6% back on. Chinese pork production has the decisive influence on world level. After the massive ASP-related slump in 2018, production fell by around 30% by 2020. For the year 2021, the statistical information calculates a production of 43.5 million t , which is still around 20% below the starting year. Chinese consumption is estimated at around 48 million t in 2021. Around 4.5 million tonnes of pork imports are therefore still required to meet demand.Added to this are 2.8 million tons of beef imports and almost 1 million tons of poultry meat . For the protein requirement, fish imports are also added. Chinese pork prices are currently in the seasonal high phase before the New Year celebrations in mid-February at a level of the converted € 5.60 / kg . If you go after the newly established futures contracts on the Dalian stock exchange , Chinese pig prices will fall to the equivalent of € 4.50 / kg in the further course of the year. The reason is seen in the increasing domestic production. The world's second largest pork production area is the EU with around 24 million tons. However, there are opposing developments between the EU member states. Increasing production can be observed in Spain, Denmark and Italy . Germany and some Eastern European countries show a clear downward trend.EU third country exports are largely determined by Spain, Denmark and Holland . The ASP-related blocking of Germany to China and other Asian importing countries has massively affected German exports. The current pig prices in the individual EU member states range from a little over € 1 to € 1.50 / kg . In the USA , the world's third largest production area, almost 13 million t of pork will be produced in 2021. However, the high rates of increase of previous years are ebbing. US pork consumption is estimated at around 10 million. This means that almost 3 million t are exported. The main destinations are Mexico, China, Japan and South Korea. US pork prices are currently still below the converted € 1 / kg mark . In the course of 2021, the rates are expected to rise to 1.25 to 1.50 € / kg, mainly in the summer months.Brazil's pork production is expected to grow by 3% to 4.25 million tons in 2021. With domestic consumption rising moderately, the greater part of the additional production is exported , which is expected to reach 1.23 million t . That corresponds to a doubling in the last 5 years. Deliveries are mainly directed to China and Hong Kong. After a short-term soaring up to the order of magnitude of 1.90 € / kg before the Christmas holidays 2020, the Brazilian pig prices have stabilized again today at around 1.50 € / kg . The increased dependency on exports leads to a price adjustment in an international context. According to the USDA surveys, Canada's pork production is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year at around 2 million t . With domestic consumption falling slightly, 1.47 million tonnes are exported .The countries of destination are the USA, Mexico and several Asian importing countries. After the temporary import ban, China is again one of the importing countries. Russia's pork production has far exceeded the self-sufficiency mark of around 3 million t and is dependent on increasing exports . However, the ASF outbreaks are a powerful obstacle. After all, around 200,000 t are going to Hong Kong and Vietnam. The Russian pig prices can no longer maintain their previous level around the equivalent of 2 € / kg. The prices are now only around 1.50 € / kg . The producers are currently in the red with the rise in grain prices and feed costs. The international pork market in 2021 will continue to depend on the still high Chinese imports. However, Chinese prices are expected to decline over the course of the year. For Germany , the ASP is the biggest obstacle to a radical price recovery.Spain is becoming more and more important in the EU-27. Brexit means costly controls that impair the exchange of goods. The Covid pandemic is initially hampering demand, especially in the catering sector, with hopes for vaccination-related relief in the further course of the year. The barbecue season in the preparation and peak phase also provides a ray of hope.
