Oilseeds market: Improved situation in the oilseed market, but rapeseed remains scarce and expensive The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased global oilseed production slightly compared to the previous month in its latest September estimate. Compared to the previous year, however, generation is almost 6% higher. Consumption is expected to increase by 3.5% year-on-year. This will tend to improve the global supply situation. Soybean production in 2021/22 is estimated 5.5% higher than in the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase by 3.1%. This increases the inventory and could ensure moderate prices. With 137 million tons, Brazil has risen to become the world's largest soy producer. 93 million tons of beans are estimated for export; in addition there are 17 million tonnes of soybean meal. The main recipient country is China.For the harvest in February / March 2022 , a volume of 144 million t is expected due to the high price incentives. Sowing begins in October. However, there are great fears about the La Niña weather phenomenon with dry periods. The USA ranks second with 119 million tons. The more favorable rainfall in some locations has led to a higher estimate than in the previous month. The harvest in autumn 2021 is expected to be 5.7% above the previous year's level. The export volume is estimated at almost 57 million t (previous year 61.5 million t). In this case, too, the Chinese are the main buyers. The Argentine harvest this spring 2021 was 46 mln t and should be in the spring months of March / April. Will increase to 52 million t in 2022. Argentina mainly exports soybean oil (6.5 million t) and soybean meal (29 million t); the export of soybeans is comparatively low at 6.3 million t. On the import side , China is at the forefront with an unchanged 101 million t or almost 60% of world trade.Compared to the previous year, imports are only expected to increase by around 2 million t. The EU-27 purchases an additional 15 million tonnes of beans, 17 million tonnes of meal and 0.55 million tonnes of oil in North and South America in addition to the 2.9 million tonnes it produces. The EU import volumes have only increased slightly. The main suppliers for beans are Brazil and the USA. In the case of soybean meal, Argentina and Brazil share deliveries in similar quantities. The USDA estimates the supply situation on the global rapeseed market at just under 68 million t. (Previous year 72.2 million t). The Canadian harvest , originally estimated at 21 million t, will be scaled down to 14 million t as a result of the heat wave. For the EU-27 , 16.8 million t are expected; that is 4.5% more than in the weak previous year. Canada's exports are falling from the usual 10.5 million t to 5.8 million t. The main victims are China, Japan and the EU. EU imports will be reduced from 5.8 million t in the previous year to 4.85 million t. Palm oil is the most important competitor to rapeseed oil.Worldwide stocks have fallen from a previous 7.6 to 3.65 million t. Rapeseed is scarce worldwide and will remain expensive for the time being. According to the USDA estimates, palm oil production is expected to increase again by almost 5% in 2021/22. Malaysia and Indonesia have a significant share of 80% of world production. The palm oil prices are still at an above-average high level. The prices in the soy sector are falling noticeably on the Chicago Stock Exchange. However, it remains to be seen to what extent the damage to the processing and transport capacities caused by the hurricane "Ida" will still have an impact. The US soybean harvest has already started. The rapeseed prices are hardly impressed by the latest developments in the oilseed market.
