USDA increases oilseed production in 2021/22 and rising consumption In its Nov estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA ) forecast the oilseed harvest in 2021/22 to be 4.1% higher to around 628 million t (previous year 603 million t). Consumption is expected to grow from 509 to 527 million t. gain weight. The final stock is estimated at an increasing 115 million t. In mathematical terms, the stocks last for 79 days (previous year 72 days). The decisive increase is due to the higher harvests in the soy sector. The USDA expects a worldwide increase from 366 to 384 million tons. The additional quantities are mainly due to the Brazilian record harvest of 138 million tons in the first half of 2021 and the US harvest of 120 million tons in autumn 2021. Argentina only achieved a below-average result with 46 million t. For the spring of 2022, Brazil expects a soybean harvest of 144 million t due to the previous cultivation areas.On the import side , China is at the forefront with little change in 100 million tonnes of soybeans or almost 60% of world trade. The shrinking Chinese pig population has slowed down the import growth that was common in the past. The EU-27 has been importing an unchanged 15 million tonnes of beans and 17 million tonnes of soybean meal for several years. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil remains in first place with an expected future volume of 94 million t. In addition, there are 17 million tonnes of soybean meal. The USA expects an export reduction of beans by 6 million t to 55.8 million t in 2021/22. US soybean meal exports change only slightly to just under 13 million t. The USDA is cutting global rapeseed production unchanged from the previous month to 67.5 mln t , which is 5 mln t less than in the previous year. The decisive factor is the Canadian rapeseed harvest, which has fallen from 19.5 to 13 million t due to the heat. Canadian rapeseed exports are falling from 10.5 to 5.7 million t.In the EU , the rapeseed harvest is estimated at 17.1 million t . Due to the global shortage of rapeseed, the EU import requirement is downgraded to 4.9 million t. Imports of over 6 million t would be necessary to cover normal consumption. In the case of the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds (+7 million t) is of regional importance. Production focuses on Russia and Ukraine with a share of almost 60%. The cultivation in the south-east European EU countries reaches a share of 17%. In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in the human diet is number one. Support comes from the relative price worthiness of the higher quality oil. Palm oil: For 2021/22, the USDA is assuming that the estimated 76.5 million t will be able to pick up on the development of previous years. In the years 2019-2021, production fell to 73 million t due to the corona-related reduced availability of harvest workers. The main increase comes from Malaysia with +1.2 milliont to 19.7 million t and Indonesia with +1 million t to 44.5 million t. Both countries together are responsible for more than 84% of world production. With 3.1 million t (previous year 2.8 million t) Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply quantities. The consumption of palm oil increases only slightly. The ending stocks change little. On the Chicago stock exchange , the prices in the soy complex have stabilized again after weeks of decline. Soybean oil gives way again after a short period of increase. Soy meal shows signs of increasing again after a short period of weakness. After a brief price decline, the palm oil prices are again at a higher level. The rapeseed prices have risen to € 700 / t. The weaker euro makes the imports necessary for supply more expensive.
