Jan.-2021 USDA: Supply situation tighter than previously estimated. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reassessed the world grain balance in its most recent Jan 2021 issue . The production increases less than the consumption. The consequence is a depletion of stocks, a development that has lasted for several years. If you exclude China from the balance sheet because of its high reserves but not significant exports, the result is a supply figure of currently 15.6% final inventory for consumption . That is as low as it was last in the critical year 2015/16. The USDA estimates global wheat production to be slightly reduced to 773 million t. Outstanding are the high Russian harvests with an increase of 16% and the Australian harvest with a doubling compared to the previous year. This contrasts with weak wheat harvests in the EU with -13%, the Ukraine with -12% and Argentina with -11%.Increasing wheat consumption is estimated in China, India and a number of smaller import countries . Nevertheless, the global final stock of wheat remains slightly higher than in the previous year at 313 mln t. However, if China is excluded, then only 154 million tons remain for the rest of the world. The world's largest corn harvest is again cutting the USDA by around 10 mln t compared to the previous month to just 1,134 mln t. Significantly reduced harvests occurred in the Ukraine with -18%, Argentina with -6.9% and the EU with -4.5% . Repeated cuts were also made in the US corn harvest , which has now been reduced from the original 380 million t to 360 million t. Global corn consumption is expected to decrease by 5 million t to 283 million t. Compared to the previous year, global inventories fell by -16 million t or -5%. If you exclude China again, then only 92 million remain .t corn left in reserve for the rest of the world . In terms of consumption, this is very scarce. In the case of the other types of grain , there was little movement in terms of price. The unexpected results triggered a real price rally on the stock exchanges . In Chicago , wheat and corn prices rose 5% in a short period of time. On the Paris stock exchange , the wheat prices rose to 225 € / t and corn to 205 € / t for the previous dates. Short-term stock market reactions should initially be assessed as snapshots. We will see what will be left of it in the near future.
