Getreide Cockpit, 08.03.2019

In its first cereal crop estimate, the EU Commission has positive aspects, as it has some significantly higher results than in the previous year. After all, a harvest of currently forecasted just under 311 million t would be the best result in 4 years. But for the different types of cereals, the estimates differ greatly. Soft wheat, barley, triticale, oats and rye are expected to increase compared to the previous year, but less to durum wheat, maize and sorghum. The European Commission estimates that the soft wheat crop will reach 140.8 million tonnes in 2019, up 9% on the previous year. On the one hand, this is due to the almost 4% larger acreage and, on the other, above all to the 5% higher yields. The rye harvest could reach over 8 million tonnes, exceeding the previous year's result by almost 30%. That would be the highest result in 5 years, based on a 5% larger acreage and an estimated 22% higher yield. The EU barley harvest of 2019 is estimated at 60.7 million t, about 7% above the previous year, which is based solely on higher yield expectations, as the acreage is expected to remain stable.With regard to the maize crop, Brussels is not so optimistic, as the 5% increase in area under cultivation will be overcompensated by lower yields, with the result that at 68.7 million t, it is expected to come to around 1% less than in 2018. The Commission values the EU -wide, the average wheat yield in 2019 at average level, but sees the national development in the main producing countries below average. For example, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Poland are expected to produce more common wheat than last year, but the long-term average does not quite match the results. In the Baltic States, on the other hand, there should be a very big increase compared to the previous year, while less wheat than in 2018 could be threshed in Spain, Bulgaria and Romania.