Getreide Cockpit, 17.08.2018

Increasing International Grain Trade Drives Prices After last week 's rise in grain prices was considered too high and a downward correction started, the counter-movement is now starting to pick up again. Background of recent developments are unusually large transhipment volumes in the international grain trade . In particular, the increased export volume of the USA draws attention to itself. US wheat and US corn are in higher demand than average.Exports from the Black Sea countries have not diminished. Despite noticeable crop losses this year, Russia and Ukraine have high levels of overage from their old crops that are now being sold. The high export volume of the past year should be only slightly below. In contrast, the harvest-related reduction in the export potential of the EU ensures that the supply options of the importing countries are perceptibly limited. Even taking into account a reduction in inventories, the EU export volumes do not reach the already low level of the past year. On the other hand, there is a considerable need for EU imports, especially for feed grain.The continuing drought in Australia is worsening the prospects for a favorable supply of supply at the turn of the year. Australian experts expect a far below-average wheat harvest in Nov./Dec. 2018. On the import side, there is a lot of activity in the importing countries of North Africa and the Middle East . It is noticeable that not only deliveries from the Black Sea come into play, but also American offers. The Europeans, especially the French, find it difficult to compete.The tighter global supply situation compared with previous years ensures that a ready- for-for- sale import trade ensures brisk business at the beginning of the cereal year. That keeps the courses busy.