Getreide Cockpit, 19.07.2019

The latest release from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on global wheat production reveals significant differences from the previous month's estimate. The global harvest forecast was significantly reduced by 9.4 to 771.5 million t. However, the previous year's result is still exceeded by 5.5% and the 5-year average by 3.8%. For the most important wheat exporters, the harvest forecasts were partly revised downwards. Russian wheat production is expected to be only 74.2 million tonnes in 2019/20, compared to 3.8 million tonnes in the previous month's estimate. The reason for this was the drought in important wheat growing areas of Russia. According to the USDA 2019/20, in the EU, too, 2.5 million tonnes less wheat will be taken from the fields at 151.3 million tonnes than expected a month ago. Crop forecasts for Ukraine, Australia and Canada have also been cut. For this purpose, 0.5 million tonnes more wheat is to be produced in the USA. Due to the lower production, global stocks are likely to be somewhat smaller. These are estimated at 286.5 million t, about 7.9 million t less than in the previous month's estimate.Inventories in the EU are said to be particularly clear. But India is also expected to store less, but not through lower production, but because an increase in domestic demand is expected. By contrast, global wheat demand should decline somewhat. In the previous month, a consumption of 763.1 million t was expected, currently it should be only 760.1 million t.