In the last week's reporting period, as of 02.05.2017, the net short positions for wheat speculators in Chicago fell sharply again. A drop of 37,689 contracts resulted in 124,638 net short positions at the end of the reporting period. The courses in Chicago were able to increase accordingly. Interesting are the current USDA figures from May, which for the first time contain the estimate for the 2017/18 economic year. According to these current figures, wheat production in the 2017/18 fiscal year is falling by 15 million tonnes to 738 million tonnes, but consumption is estimated to be 5 million tonnes lower. At the same time, the initial stocks were estimated higher, so that the final stocks of wheat should ultimately rise by 3 million tonnes. Maize production in the 2017/18 fiscal year is expected to fall by 31 million tonnes to 1,034 million tonnes and consumption will rise by 8 million tonnes. The initial stocks were slightly higher, so that the final stocks of maize should fall by 29 million tonnes compared to the previous year.Finally, a decline of 35 million tonnes to 479 million tonnes is assumed for end-of-grain stocks, including other cereals such as barley, rye, etc. While the Stock to Use Ratio is 35% higher than the average for the past five years, the stock to use ratio is still slightly above average for all cereals at 23%. These figures, of course, still have a very high degree of uncertainty, since the development of maize is still unachievable. The stock exchanges initially accepted the publication of the estimate relatively calmly, but these figures were largely expected in advance.
The net short positions also declined in maize speculators in Chicago in the last week of the reporting period as of 02.05.2017. A minus of 11,627 contracts ultimately resulted in 184,630 net short positions. However, the courses in Chicago remained stable.
