Coceral: First EU harvest estimate 2020: -2% compared to the previous year In its traditional early forecast, the European umbrella organization of the trade cooperatives for grain and oilseed estimates the EU harvest 2020 to be 2% lower than in the previous year. The main basis for the estimate is 0.86% higher acreage and weather-related lower yield expectations. The wheat harvest is approx. Estimated 138 million tons. The decrease of around 7 million t is attributed to reduced acreage in France, Germany, Denmark and parts of Great Britain . The cause was the adverse sowing conditions in autumn 2019. For France, Denmark and Great Britain, COCERAL expects lower area yields compared to the above-average results of the previous year. If the ex-EU member United Kingdom is left out, the drop in wheat harvest is significantly lower at -3 million t.The EU barley harvest 2020 is estimated at a slightly lower 60.8 million t. A larger acreage on the one hand and, contrary to the previous year, area yields trimmed again on the other hand make a significant contribution to the result. A slightly larger proportion of summer barley is assumed. COCERAL estimates an EU maize harvest in 2020 at 65 million t 6.5% higher than in the previous year. The estimators assume that the non-ordered acreage for winter cereals is mainly used for maize cultivation. Average yields are also expected in France, Germany and Poland, which suffered from the drought in the previous year. The rye harvest is again classified as a multi-year average slightly above the 8 million t, while the triticale harvest should drop slightly to 10.7 million t.The UK's expected final exit from the EU at the end of the calendar year makes it necessary to report the EU-27 harvest separately because other trade relations will apply after 31 December 2020. Then the total harvest result in 2020 is 282.5 million t compared to the previous year at 282.9 million t. The wheat harvest is then calculated at a lower 125.5 million tons compared to 129.6 million tons in the previous year. For the other cereals, higher and lower harvests largely offset each other. Of course, the harvest estimate at such an early stage still contains a number of uncertainties. You may no longer have to reckon with severe wintering damage, the soil water reserves have also replenished, but the weather period in the critical grain formation phase can still have a serious impact.
