- May 2023: EU-KOM increases crop estimate for 2023/24
In its May issue, the EU Commission increases the EU grain harvest for 2023/24 to 285 million tonnes. In the previous month, the estimate was 1 million t lower. Compared to the previous year, the result represents an increase of +7.35%. The reasons for the improvement are an increased cultivation area by 1% and increased yield expectations from 5.7% to an average of 55 dt/ha. The largest increase is due to wheat , which delivered 132.8 million t in the previous year and is expected to increase to almost 139 million t in the coming year. The coming corn harvest is also expected to be around 12 million tonnes higher at 64.1 million tonnes after the weak previous year. On the other hand, the other grain types will not be able to fully maintain the previous year's result. Only rye is benefiting from the higher rainfall this year. EU grain consumption is estimated to be 0.5% higher at 256 million tonnes.Compared to previous years, domestic consumption remains at a significantly lower level due to the reduced number of livestock. EU grain imports are expected to fall by around 28% due to the forthcoming increase in harvest. At the same time, an increase in exports of 8% to almost 48 million t is calculated. The largest share is accounted for by wheat at around 67%. At the end of 2023/24, a 13% increase in overstock is expected. The price-relevant supply figure is calculated at around 22% of the ending inventory for consumption; last year it was only 19.4%. From an EU perspective, a good average domestic supply can be assumed. However, there is little room for upward pricing . This requires impetus from third countries.
