European Commission reduced crop estimate - wheat prices exceed 200 €/ t brand

European Commission assesses new grain harvest - 2 million tonnes less than in the previous month

The recent estimate of the European Commission to the EU cereals market comes to a harvest volume of 307 million t (previous year 329 million tons). The higher expectations of past months have been scaled back significantly. The wheat harvest is considered now to 147.8 million tonnes (previous year 156.5 million tonnes). The EU maize crop is now at 68.5 million tonnes (previous year 76 million tonnes and barley harvest is estimated at 58.1 million tonnes.

The Commission assumes 283.3 million tonnes on the usage page . Largely unchanged 66 million tonnes are intended for immediate human consumption.  In the feed sector 173 million will be accommodated. Rd 32 million tonnes are intended for industrial use (alcohol and bioethanol).

The export is almost 41 million tonnes (previous year 47.5 million tonnes) reached. A lower requirement in the North African countries and an expected stronger competition from the Black Sea region to limit the volume of EU exports.

The inventory at the end of the marketing year should be less than 5%. The supply situation no longer reached the record level of the previous year, is still above the multi-annual average.

The Commission estimate could still envisage not the latest weather development with unusually high temperatures in many parts of Europe. Early crops and varieties are incompletely or don't have the necessary time for the grain filling stage. The yields on the less water sustainable floors should be adversely affected. Little is left of the lush spring development.

Wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange exceed the limit of €200 per t. €185 per t be exceeded in Chicago. In recent days the courses due to the developments in the weather (too wet in the United States,) have gone to dry steeply in Europe upwards. The assessment of a plentiful supply situation from high initial levels and a large crop of 2015/16 has given way to a brokered a maximum average power estimation. And yet a number of production and harvest risks to overcome. However, that adverse price movements follow unilateral price developments in the aftermath of the experience. To what extent this happens depends on the further assessments of the crop output.

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