Harvest estimate of the DBV: a bang The latest harvest estimate of the German Farmers' Association (DBV) with more than 20% harvest losses compared to the already weak previous year has caused a worldwide sensation. Even on the Chicago Stock Exchange, prices jumped upwards. However, the estimate also contains a certain political connotation . There is a close relationship to the required subsidies of approx. € 1 billion suspected.On the other hand, the DBV points out that due to the early harvests on a large scale, concrete data was included in the estimate . It is not based on the cultivation, as in previous forecasts, but the actual harvested areas . A considerable number of areas in the north have been chopped up to reduce the basic feed shortage. These areas are not available for grain production. To a great extent, this conversion takes place in the case of maize. The actual threshing results per hectare for wheat, rye and barley form the second basis for the estimation result. In the case of wheat, the area yield should amount to approx. 60 dt / ha fell. In the previous year, the result was just under 80 dt / ha.Also for the otherwise so drought-tolerant rye yield reductions of 28% are forecasted. In view of the continuing drought in the decisive month of August, further deterioration of maize may be expected. The grain prices in the north of Germany are driven up by the small supply weekly. The courses for bread wheat reach the 200 € / t mark. Feed grain in the processing regions is hardly cheaper. By contrast, grain prices in the south of the republic amount to approx. 170 € / t significantly lower.T he completed winter rapeseed harvest is expected to deliver only 3.3 million tonnes in Germany compared to a 5-year average of 5.2 million tonnes. In addition to a smaller acreage, the low yield of only 26 dt / ha is responsible for the poor result. Although rapeseed prices are hard to compare with the cheap competition for palm oil and soybeans, prices in Paris have moved beyond the € 370 / t mark .
