Large harvests in the Black Sea area are under heat stress - losses and less export? Since mid-June temperatures in the main growing areas of Russia and Ukraine have been above 30 degrees Celsius. This is the usual continental climate with hot dry summers. This weather phenomenon has made little appearance in recent years. With a high evaporation rate, the soil water reserves can be quickly exhausted. The grain is in crucial earnings phases. There is a risk that the high earnings expectations will not be met. So far, the high harvest forecasts are on a critical test stand. So far, harvest forecasts for Russia have been made at the previous year's level of 117 million tonnes. The vast majority of the Russian crop consists of wheat with an estimated 78 to 80 million tonnes. In the previous years, more than half of them were exported. For Ukraine, crop estimates are in the order of 73 million tonnes. Exports were between 40 and 50 million tonnes with a focus on corn. The total harvest is divided into approx. 40 million tons of corn and almost 30 million tons of wheat.The current hot and dry weather period hits wheat in its crucial grain formation phase. If the water supply is too low, fewer grains will mature and the grain size will remain low. This leads to sensitive yield losses. The corn is only in the growth phase. Lack of water reduces plant growth and thus the necessary leaf areas for photosynthesis, which is the basis for grain yield. Experience from previous years shows that early summer drought can account for crop failures of the order of 20 to 30%. Possibly. Crop failure is reflected directly in a decline in exports. The high inventories of earlier years hardly serve as significant compensation. The two Black Sea States have more than doubled grain exports over the last 8 years. Russia and Ukraine have become leading grain exporting countries, fiercely rivaling EU exports. A possible decline in Black Sea supplies is of direct relevance to the EU market and its grain prices.
