Russia: Different extreme weather conditions affect the grain harvest, new sowing and export Russia has become the world's largest exporter of wheat. Therefore, the respective conditions of the Russian grain market have an international effect. The main grain cultivation in Russia takes place in the European part west of the Urals. The focus is on the southern district with a share of 42% and the central district with 23%. In addition there is the North Caucasus District with 19% and the Volga District with 15%. The 2020 cultivation year began with favorable spring weather with little winter damage and sufficient spring moisture . In the following months, heat waves and lack of precipitation impaired the high yield expectations. In June the first heat wave began with temperatures of around 30 degrees in parts of the northwestern district , but with limited effects on the yield level.The next heat wave with temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees hit large parts of the western Volga district in July. However, the grain was already well advanced in maturity, so that the negative effects were limited. However, the combination of heat and lack of precipitation in the southeastern Volga region was serious. The estimates of yield reductions vary between 10 and 25%. The soils are partly too dry for the new sowing . The seeds only emerge cautiously. The narrow time window until the onset of winter leads to cultivation restrictions. The alternative summer sowing is less profitable. In the southern district from June to Sep. 2020 a persistent drought, which had an impact in part on the yield of the 2020 crop, but has become much more important for the sowing of the coming crop. In many places, the space ordered is lagging behind the multi-year average. Here, too, reductions in the 2021 harvest are expected.Despite the fact that the harvest is still high in a multi-year comparison, people in Russia are beginning to worry about sufficient future self-sufficiency . At the beginning of 2021, a quota of export quantities will begin , the amount of which has yet to be determined in detail. The Russian farmers are already noticeably holding back the delivery quantities, so that prices have risen significantly. The prices at the export ports in the Black Sea are already above the European level. For Russia, the wintering rate of between 10 and 40% always plays an important role. Therefore, the precautionary commemoration beyond the current harvest is a challenge for the omnipresent state control of the agricultural sector. Russian export behavior is of decisive importance for the further development of grain prices, especially wheat prices.
