96. USDA Outlook Forum : Preview of Agricultural Markets 2020 On February 20/21, 2020, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) held its annual event on the prospects for agricultural markets in 2020. Renowned market experts and agricultural politicians will speak on this. The US wheat harvest is estimated at just under 50 million tons . The acreage has been reduced again due to unfavorable sowing conditions. The area yields are estimated in the increasing average of the last years. The harvest is approx. half in own consumption and export. The USDA anticipates a reduction in inventories. Producer prices are expected to increase by the equivalent of € 1.20 / dt to € 16.75 / dt . After the weak US corn harvest last year, market experts estimate this year's record result of 393 million tons. This is due to the increased acreage and the average increase in area yield.However, increasing self-consumption due to increased animal populations and the use of bioethanol lead to an increase in the stockpiles. Accordingly, the average annual corn prices should drop to the equivalent of € 13 / dt . The US soybean harvest is estimated at 113 million t this year after 96.5 million t in the previous year under extremely difficult weather conditions. Own consumption should only increase to a small extent. One hopes for export quantities that tie in with the earlier years. The negotiations with China as the world's largest importer sounded promising, but the actual Chinese purchases remain to be seen for the time being. The US Department of Agriculture estimates the producer prices for soybeans at approx. 30 € / German Soybean meal prices for 48% RP goods are predicted to average € 31.5 / t ex works in Illinois. A similar price level usually results for 44% German soybean meal .The Eurokur s also plays a role. US pig production will grow for the 6th time in a row in 2020. According to the latest cattle count results, it is foreseeable that in the first half of 2020 the herds will be 3% above the previous year. However, the currently low US pig prices of 1 € / kg SG dampen further increases in herds. The total pork production will increase by 5% to 13.1 million tons in 2020 . Higher slaughter numbers and slaughter weights contribute to this. With domestic consumption increasing to a limited extent, exports are increasing by 17% to 3.3 million t. The two main sales areas, Mexico and China, are targeted. Despite Chinese punitive tariffs, China is relying on China's high import requirements due to the internationally low US price level. Average annual pig prices are converted to 1.33 € / kg SG .US milk production has grown continuously by a total of 14% in the past 10 years. The 100 million t mark will be reached for the first time in 2020. The dairy cow population increases only slightly to 9.335 million animals. In contrast, an increase in milk production to 10,800 kg per cow and year is expected. On the demand side , domestic consumption increases of between 0.5 and 1.3% are expected. Exports are even expected to grow by 3 to 4.5% . In particular, the sale of excess skimmed milk powder is expected to make a significant contribution due to the low US starting prices. More dairy products are sold in Mexico . However, China is skeptical. In contrast, imports of butter and cheese are classified lower. The main reason is the US import tariffs , which particularly affect EU deliveries of butter and cheese.High average milk prices of around € 38.5 / 100 kg and low feed costs will lead to a positive outlook for 2020 in the US milk sector. According to the current state of knowledge and all reservations about uncertain events, the traditional previews of upcoming market developments serve as a guide . What developments can be expected under average conditions?
