USDA Mar-24 Report: 2023/24 Wheat and Corn Supply Slightly Lower Month-on-Month. In the new March report, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) only corrects its previous month's estimate for the global grain market in a few points. A slightly larger wheat harvest is more than offset by even higher consumption. In the case of corn production, on the other hand, a lower harvest result is assumed compared to the previous month, while corn consumption was increased. This means that the global corn supply, which was previously viewed as good average, is falling somewhat behind. The unchanged estimate of the Brazilian corn harvest remains astonishing, although due to the weather conditions the sowing of secondary corn after the delayed soybean harvest was lower. Compared to the previous year, the assessment remains that the world harvest will increase as will consumption. The price-determining final stocks remain at a similarly high level in terms of quantity, but in relation to consumption the % ending stocks of consumption tend to fall.
At the moment, however, much more attention is being paid to the stocks of the major export and import countries. In the case of wheat exports , these include Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU-27, Russia and Ukraine with a total of 40 million t (previous year 46 million t). The major wheat importers include 15 countries, mainly in North Africa, the Middle East and East Asian countries, whose stocks are around 10 million tons smaller than in the previous year. The world's most important corn exporters are Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Ukraine and Russia, whose final stocks are down from 18.6 to 13 million t last year. In contrast, the major corn importing countries such as the EU, Japan, Mexico, South Korea and Egypt have declining stocks from 20 million t in the previous year to 18 million t today. This comparison shows that the supply situation in the leading countries with extensive grain trade, which has a major influence on prices, should be viewed critically. In addition, based on current knowledge, the coming harvest cannot be expected to produce above-average results. The rapid price decline of the last few weeks has not continued, but is showing clear signs of recovery, albeit at a lower level.
