USDA First World Grain Estimate 2023-24

  1. USDA 2023/24 World Grain Market Estimate - Mixed Development

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) regularly delivers an initial estimate of the global grain supply for the coming 2023/24 marketing year in the May issue. Production is provisionally estimated at just under 2,299 million t (previous year 2,230 million t), ie slightly better than in the past year. The USDA estimates global consumption at 2,287 million t, which differs only slightly from the previous year. This improves the global supply balance to a closing stock of 603 million t compared to the current year with only 591 million t. The range of inventories increases to 96 days (previous year 92 days). Previous forecasts for the world harvest 2023/24:

In million t USDA May 12, 2023 FAO May 07, 2023 I.G.C. 21.Apr 2023
Estimated total harvest 2023-24 2,299.2 --- 2,290.50
Wheat harvest from it 789.76 785 787.3
rest of the grain 1,509.53 --- 1,503.2

In the case of wheat , the USDA forecasts world production of almost 790 million t (previous year 788 million t). Consumption is slightly higher at 792 million tons. As a result, a slight reduction in inventories is expected.However, very different developments are observed in the main production/export areas. The biggest slump in production, at -21%, is forecast for the Ukraine . Russia will also bring in a -11% lower wheat harvest due to reduced acreage and only average yield expectations. A sharp drop of -25% is expected after Australia's record two years in La Niña conditions. On the other hand, an average harvest result of 19.5 million t (previous year 12.6 million t) is expected for Argentina . Only a slightly higher wheat harvest is forecast in the USA . Despite reduced domestic consumption and reduced exports, US ending inventories will be at their lowest level in 16 years. This means that the USA will be able to act very cautiously when selling wheat on the world market. Wheat production in the EU-27 increases by almost 2%, as does export.On the import side , the notable increases in wheat imports from North African countries, the Middle East and Southeast Asia stand out. In contrast, a noticeable reduction in imports is expected for China . Overall, the global wheat market remains rather tightly supplied. Accordingly, the prices on the stock exchanges have reacted with a strong price increase. The US stock exchanges in particular have risen sharply. The future global maize production is already well advanced in the southern hemisphere, while in the northern hemisphere only the cultivated areas form a reliable basis for estimation. The USDA estimates the world harvest at 1,220 million t (previous year 1,150 million t). This contrasts with a consumption of 1,204 million t, so that stocks are expected to build up. The range of inventories is calculated at 95 days, which has changed little. However, different results are expected at the individual locations. Again it is Ukraine where corn production is expected to be -18.5% lower.On the other hand, +11% increase is predicted in the US due to crop planning and average yields. After the catastrophic previous year, the Argentine corn harvest is expected to return to an average level. After the weak corn year 2022, an average harvest result is also expected for the EU-27 . With changes in the flow of goods, the global corn trade is expected to increase significantly again in 2023 by +17%. In addition to the classic import areas, China is also making increasing purchases. Stock market prices for corn increased only slightly compared to wheat. Expectations of the new harvest 2023/24 are becoming increasingly important for price formation . The Ukraine war and its consequences are increasingly being pushed into the background. Nevertheless, the agreement on the Black Sea transport corridor remains a price element that cannot be overlooked. However, the shocking effects of the previous year are rather unlikely.

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