Nov. 2020: USDA corrects world grain supply 2020/21 downwards - less corn In the November edition of global grain supply 2020/21 the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) corrects production to 2,220 million t. Although this result is 2.5% above the previous year, it is around 10 million T less than in the previous month's estimate. On the consumption side, approx. 2.211 million t are estimated, which is an increase of 2.2% compared to the previous year. This results in final stocks of 642 million t. The worldwide supply figure is little changed at 29% final inventory for consumption. In mathematical terms, global supplies including China are sufficient for 106 days. China has more than half of the world's grain stocks, but this year due to storms it will have to lower its reserves and add approx. Purchasing 34 million t (previous year: 23 million t) of grain. The supply number o. China falls to 16% final inventory for consumption; supplies for the rest of the world are only sufficient for 59 days.The USDA reduced global wheat production slightly to 772 mln t compared to the previous month. Compared to last year h igh crops are in Australia (+ 25%), Canada (+ 5%), India (+ 3.4%) and Russia (+ 6.7%) minor crops in the EU (-9%), the Ukraine (-9%), North Africa (-5.5%) and the USA (-2.2%) . Wheat consumption is estimated at a slightly increasing 753 million t. The global end stocks are slightly reduced at approx. 320 million tons. Without China, the overhang amounts are only half as high. The wheat stocks excluding China are sufficient for 92 days (previous year 87 days). With an export share of 21%, Russia holds its position at the top of world trade , far ahead of the USA, Canada and the EU.On the import side, there are little changes in North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, which together represent approx. Claim 40% of global imports. The USDA is cutting global maize production by 14 million t to 1,144 million t compared to the previous month. The main cause is the US corn harvest (-5.5 million t) and the results in the Ukraine (-8 million t) and in the EU (-2 million t). The Brazilian maize harvest in the first half of 2021 is still estimated to be high at 110 million t. Global corn consumption is estimated at -6 million t compared to the previous month to 1,156 million t . The decrease is mainly taking place in the EU (-6 million t). The decline is expected in the feed and bioethanol sectors. The global stocks of corn will be reduced from 300 to 291 million tons. Without China, the arithmetical supplies last for 42 days compared to 45 days in the previous year.The supply situation in the corn sector will be less than in the previous year. For the EU-28 , the USDA estimates a total harvest of 299 million t, of which 136 million t is wheat. Union exports are expected to drop from 48 to 35 million t . Imports are expected to increase slightly to 26 million t . The USDA calculates the EU surplus stocks at approx. 27 million t. or 34 days range significantly lower than in the previous year; a critical value in view of crop fluctuations . In an initial reaction, wheat prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose to the equivalent of € 190 / t. The US corn prices jumped from 137 to over 141 € / t. In Paris , wheat prices rose briefly to € 212 / t , while corn prices rose to € 193 / t .
