USDA: World grain supply unchanged from the previous month - lower than last year - prices are picking up The most recent estimate by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) on world grain supply delivered fewer major changes than had been expected in advance. The world harvest estimates the USDA at 2,162 million tons , while consumption is forecast at 2,172 million tons . As a result, the inventory level will be further reduced to 622 million tonnes . In terms of consumption, the final stock amounts to only 28.6% compared to 30.7% in 2017/18. Thus, the supply level is still in the good average range. However, the supply situation excluding China, which has 50% stockpile but no significant export, is significantly more important for pricing. The supply figure excluding China fell from 18.4% to 16% final stock . Little changes compared to the previous year. Compared to the previous month, the USDA shortens wheat production to 765 milliont as well as consumption to 756 million t . The wheat market remains well supplied with a slightly rising terminal balance. The drought in Australia and the bad weather in Russia and Kazakhstan were the deciding factors for the downward revision, while a good harvest in India and a slightly higher EU result partially offset each other. Global corn production puts the USDA at a reduced 1,105 million t. Consumption is given as a reduced 1,128 million t. The final stock is expected to decline to 306 million tonnes. The global market situation in the corn sector will be much narrower with a falling supply ratio from 31% to 27% than in the previous years. The deciding factor is the sharp decline in the US corn harvest , which rates the USDA from 366 in the previous year to the current 350 million t . The background is the severely impaired maize sowing in May.For the EU , the USDA estimates a total harvest of 309 million tonnes, of which 151 million tonnes of wheat. Consumption is estimated at approx. 296 million t predicted. The EU export should amount to 35 million t. The figures are roughly in line with the harvest forecasts of the EU Commission. The wheat and corn courses that have already picked up last week have taken another step up in Chicago . Corn is rising from just under 14 € / dt to almost 14,50 € / dt. The wheat quotation increased from 15.40 to 16.20 € / dt. In Paris , the Dec. 19 forward prices for wheat are again based on the € 170 / t line . The prices for corn will move upwards in line with US requirements.
