Milk: Will the summer price drop this year? On average , the milk supply in the early summer months increases and milk prices reach their annual price quite regularly . On average, with a Price decline compared to the annual average of approx. 2 to 3 ct / kg can be expected.Reduction of disbursement prices But does not have to In any case, be clearly visible when other influencing factors overlap the seasonal effect . It can not be ruled out that The usual seasonal drop in prices during the early summer months In this year little to not at all appears.The fact that the available amounts of milk are not too abundant is first seen in the spot prices. This is where dairy farms are traded between dairies, which can be used less well than others. Spot prices regularly have the function of an early indicator with a certain lead time. This year, it is noticeable that in a milk surplus region such as Holland the spot prices are again rising above 36 ct / kg . In deficit Italy , the prices also rose again above the 35.8 ct / kg mark . In fact, falling courses at this time of the year should dominate the market.Although the spot prices are little different from the average prices, absolute milk prices can be expected to be at least on a stabilization rate , and possibly further fortifications can not be dismissed in autumn. However, very large price increases are not to be expected. The futures prices for butter and MMP at Leipzig's EEX show relatively stable to slightly rising development for the coming months. Even if the trade is still small, the quotations provide an indication of the market and price estimates that are widely used in wholesale circles. Arguments can also be derived from the rising upturns on the Chicago Stock Exchange. The quotations indicate an unusual increase in the season until autumn months.Last but not least, the two-month Global Dairy Trade Exchanges provide directional results. In the last 5 auctions, the average revenues are increased by approx. 15% . On average, the rate of increase was just under 3% per auction. Of particular interest are the auction results for the next 6 months of delivery up to Oct-17. The double-digit price increases for the two butterfat products are particularly noticeable. But also the milk powder courses are on average in the positive range. In view of the high level of EU intervention stocks in skimmed-milk powder, the stable price developments in this area are remarkable.
