China produced 31.81 million tons of pork in the first nine months of this year. This is 17.2% less than in the same period last year, according to official Chinese statistics today.
African swine fever was diagnosed in August 2018 and the government in Beijing has been trying hard to contain the epidemic ever since.
However, pork production is thus larger than expected from analysts. This week, China's Ministry of Agriculture has announced that pig populations in the country have dropped 41% over the past year. The statistics office reports today, however, that it was only 28.5%.
Chinese Ministry of Agriculture figures show that China's national pig herd has been shrinking steadily for 11 months.
Some analysts and market participants claim that the decline is even greater than the 41% estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture.
Rabobank estimates that Chinese pork production will fall by 25% this year. In 2020 then by another 10-15%.
Overall, meat production in China, which includes pigs, cattle, lambs and poultry, fell by 8.3% in 2019 in the first nine months of 2019, according to official statistics today.
Food prices in China have risen significantly with rising pork prices. Pork prices in the food trade increased by 84% compared to the previous year.
