Ölsaaten Cockpit, 10.04.2015

Oilseed market 2014/15: more soy production - high rap send stocks

The most recent estimate of the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) has increased the global oilseed production in 2014/15 compared with the previous month on a magnitude of around 533 million tonnes. Compared to the previous year, the increase is approximately 28 million tons and 5.5%, respectively. On the processing side, increasing the number to 24 million tonnes to 432 Mio.t. The final stocks add up to 103 million tonnes around 23 million more than in the previous year. This is a record level. The global supply situation can be considered far above average be.

With rd.  take 60% of the soybeans in the oilseed market a market-leading role. In the current marketing year 2014/15 the USDA estimated a soybean crop of approximately 315 million tonnes, about 32 million tonnes or  11% more than in the previous year. Substantial part of the United States with 108 Mio.t have it harvested last fall, Brazil with 94.5 million tonnes at the end of a current crop and Argentina with 57 million tonnes currently only at the beginning of a promising crop.

On the uses side, 254 Mio.t are approximately 14 million more than in the previous year. Of which, China denies the largest share with imported 74 million tonnes. Just under 50 million tonnes are processed in the United States.

The global trade in soybeans is estimated at 115 million tonnes. On the export side, the United States with 49 million tonnes, and Brazil are the top with 46 Mio.t. Both countries deny more than 80% of the global soybean exports. On the import side, China remains sets the tone with unchanged 74 million tonnes the previous year. Then comes the EU with constant imports of 12.5 million tons. There are also little changed 19 million tonnes of EU imports of soya meal. Covering the protein gap in the EU soy imports has remained largely constant for several years.

The main suppliers of soybean meal in the world trade are Argentina with 29 million tons according to almost 100% of the production, Brazil with 14 million tonnes or  about 50% of the production and the United States with 11.6 million tonnes, or one-third of the production.

The upcoming U.S. soybean crops in the autumn 2015 promise a repeated high crop above the 100 Mio.t brand. Thus, the supply situation could be increased again.

The global rape production 2014/15 is estimated to at least equal the USDA estimates with 71.5 million tonnes as in the previous year. A significant contribution in the amount of 24 million tons is attributed to the EU. Canada could not repeat his bumper crop from the previous year. The results from both countries cancel each other out.

The rap send stocks reached a previous record with approximately 7.5 million tonnes. High levels of overlay will be 2015/16 necessary given the low rapeseed harvest expected to cushion the supply from the supply side. Possibly the rapeseed consumption also by the bio-diesel demand side will subside.

US stock prices gave in the soy complex significantly after. Soy meal prices experienced a real decline. Driving force will be the Höherschätzung of the Argentine soybean crop, which additional quantity immediately go in the processing of soybean and soybean meal exports.

A short-term boom is the rare courses on the Paris stock exchange . But already the Winnipeger quotes for canola are not gone with this way. Indefinitely the canola price is can not evade the requirements of the two market leaders, soy and palm oil.