USDA estimate of the oilseed market: supply remains abundant
The recent assessment of the U.S. Department of agriculture to the supply situation in the oilseed market comes to a renewed confirmation of a soaring range development in the course of the marketing year 2014/15.
The harvesting and consumption figures have been corrected compared to the previous month.
The was just under 2 million tonnes after global oilseed crop up on rd. 531 million tonnes corrected. A less strongly rising consumption helps ensure that the expected closing stock should rise to unprecedented 104 million tonnes. The stock increase leads to a safe stock cushion, which is able to absorb any unexpected market disruptions to a considerable extent.
The greatest contribution the supply soy beans with an estimated harvest volume of rd. 313 million tonnes of (previous year 285 million tonnes) or a production share of 60%. The global harvest of rape should be nearly 72 million tonnes or about 13.5% share. The other oilseeds such as sunflower, cottonseed, peanuts and others form a relatively constant rest.
Soy is the market leader in the oilseed sector apart from Palm oil. The year's bumper crop of global dating back to a considerable extent completed U.S. crop with a volume of 108 million tonnes (previous year 91 million tonnes). The Brazilian soybeans, which delayed expected harvest beg. / mid Feb 2015 will start are seeded to almost 100%. The USDA estimate puts the result on 94 Mio.t while the Brazilian Agriculture Ministry CONAB has released a number of 96 million tonnes. Brazil's soybean harvest amounted to rd. 86 million tonnes in the previous year.
The Argentine soya beans sown two-thirds will provide an equally good harvest as in the previous year, amounting to 55 million tonnes according to recent estimates.
Soybeans have a significant competitive advantage over alternative maize cultivation according to the current price conditions . Should this relationship continue, the upcoming U.S. soy seed starting from April 2015 - will claim more crops at the expense of maize for themselves. Overall, the prospects for an high range of soy in the year 2015 fall very promising. However you should lose the weather-dependent yield risk not from the point of view.
The old rape harvesting 2014/15 is estimated again higher to about 72 million tonnes due to the increased to estimates in Canada. For the coming year the rapeseed harvest results to be but as a result of surface cuts in the EU's largest wine-growing area significantly weaker.
The front courses on the stock exchanges gave limited for the time being under the impression of the big U.S. soybean crop. Still is a dead end, emerged from the small overlay, late U.S. harvest and logistics difficulties. A currently buoyant export demand also contributes to the rather fixed rates. The forward rates show a remarkable gradation in the spring months of 2015 but the coming price development on a significantly lower level. , The month of March 2015 will lead to a sharp competition between the U.S. and the South American beans, which could go at the expense of price levels.
Upwards low soy prices slack for the rape rates hardly significant . Lower crop expectations will change only little in Europe due to the interchangeability of vegetable oils with each other
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Safe, partly expected high oilseed crops lead to a conclusion that supply, which is up to bezeicchnen as above average. On the demand side, the development of consumption is less highly classified. There remain large closing inventories at record levels, develop a price calming effect compared with still possible disturbance of the market. Asset prices signal a clearly lower level to the current listings in the spring months of 2015. The latter are still under the impression of temporary logistical caused supply bottlenecks, which will be months fixed in the course of the next.
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