Ölsaaten Cockpit, 14.08.2015

Oilseeds under price pressure

The Latest USDA estimate of the global oilseed market has the production to almost 530 million tonnes (previous year 537 million tonnes) reduced. The reduction has essentially significantly reduced rape production in the EU and Canada contributed, to the surprise of the market participants the soy production slightly higher on world's 320 million tonnes was classified. The initial data are approximately 94 million tonnes as a result of the South American record harvests already far beyond the results of the previous year, should be increased but, at the end of the upcoming business year again around 2 million tonnes.

With more than 60% plays the leader of the soybean. Considerable amounts of soy on the market have been brought after the high harvests in Brazil and Argentina in the early summer of 2015 until recent times. The estimated surplus stocks have grown to about 10 and make a cheap risk cushion for any shortfalls in the current financial year.

Catered for in the coming October surprise has the latest USDA estimate in the form of increased U.S. soybean crop . In the face of continuous rain in the U.S. soy belt was the sowing, and prevented. The previous stock musters remained behind previous values. Still, the USDA estimated a U.S. soy crop only 1.5 million tonnes below the previous year's record result to 106.6 million tonnes.

First, the numbers have contributed to an drastic decline in the stock markets but a little was marginalized in the next few days.

On the forecast results were already doubts expressed, a suspected lower US-cultivation / harvest area and the expected income refers to.

Further concerns have been raised against the estimate of Chinese soy imports by 79 million tonnes in the face of multiple purchasing power reduction of China's currency. However, the increase of 2 million tons over the previous year with an increase in falls +7 million tonnes (before last year + 11 million tonnes) comparatively modest out. But China is also significant importer of other oilseeds and their products.

Once again high priced crops in South America, which are available only in the spring of 2016 are already included in the estimate. This soybean areas sowing begins Sept of end of. 2015 with the risk of an ongoing El Niño six months. You would be wise to interpret these numbers with caution.

Crucial to the assessment of the oilseed market the palm oil market is one . Palm oil is one of the market leaders in the field of vegetable oils due to its large market share of more than 30% and its unbeatable value. Production estimates run beyond 2015/16 in the two main production areas Indonesia and Malaysia despite an expected El Niño Wetters with high intensity on an unabated great harvest. The already high opening stock should be increased again. That speaks for a good supply situation, which must face the competing oils.

The highly unusual course of crude oil once again gaining influence in prices for vegetable oils. The tight competition from mineral to biodiesel in the non-regulated area plays the decisive role. As long as the plentiful supply of crude oil keeps on, the vegetable oils will receive little chance for higher price margin.

For the European rape rates , competitive prices form the upper limit, even if in the EU and at world level rape is still so scarce.  Here is however still the price factor of the euro. Import demand of canola or replacement products with high transport costs causes a change of the dollar to euro ratio to 0.1 a price change in the rapeseed €3.5 background is German.