Rapeseed went north this week. While the contracts closed on Friday of the previous week for May 2024 at 422.50 euros/t, at the closing bell yesterday the Paris Matif scoreboard read 425.75 euros/t. Support for rapeseed comes, on the one hand, from harvest expectations for the coming season. Globally, less rapeseed is expected. According to Strategie Grains, the coming harvest is also likely to be lower in Europe. There are also signs of a small cultivated area in Ukraine and the current harvest in Australia was recently forecast to be slightly higher, but the expected harvest volume is still around a third lower than last year. In Canada, market participants are speculating about an impending wave of purchases from China. Canola has also been able to develop nicely recently. Europe's imports are well below the previous year's level, but are still high. Ukraine is currently proving to be a reliable supplier for Europe's oil mills. Sales on the cash market remain manageable overall. Things are a little different with rapeseed meal. Demand is quite good, availability is scarce. Many manufacturers will only be able to deliver again from next week.
Soybeans were volatile this week, but up until yesterday, Thursday, prices had risen overall this week. Soybean meal also increased in price. The harvest prospects for South America have stabilized. The Buenos Aires grain exchange did not adjust its forecast any further. In Argentina, renewed rainfall also supported the final stage of plant development. Harvesting continues in Brazil. The harvest pace has slowed due to regional rainfall, but is still around 3 percent above the previous year's harvest pace. For US exports, this harvest pace means there is currently good availability of soybeans on the world market. For today's WASDE, analysts expect adjustments for Brazil. US stocks, on the other hand, are unlikely to change much. The signs of this are not there. Monthly soy processing numbers for January were slightly lower than December, but remain above last year's level.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed market appears to be in a stable condition overall. Prices have recently traded slightly higher. The current harvest in South America is certainly having a negative impact on the mood. But the need is still great. This is particularly evident in the current low delivery capacity of rapeseed meal in Germany.
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