COCERAL estimates EU rapeseed harvest below 21 million t The European Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives (COCERAL) has reduced the EU rapeseed harvest to below 21 million t in its most recent edition. By comparison, the EU Commission still considered a result of over 22 million tonnes possible. The low harvest is due in equal measure to reduced acreage and lower yield expectations. In the northern and eastern EU growing regions, weaker results than in other subregions have been observed. Unfavorable order conditions played a role in the autumn months of the previous year. Recently, a prolonged dry period has resulted in lower yields. In the UK, the harvest drops to approx. 2 million t back. In almost all Scandinavian and Baltic states, too little rainfall has led to a reduction in yield expectations. Poland, too, suffered from drought; The harvest should be about 2% smaller. In a similar way, one must reckon with lower rapeseed crops in Romania.The French harvest is expected to remain at the previous year's estimated level of 5.3 million tonnes. On the other hand, for Germany - once on the same level as France - once again a weak harvest in the order of just under 4.3 million tonnes is predicted. The German Raiffeisenverband recently made an even weaker forecast of around 4 million tonnes. The rape courses on the stock exchanges are not impressed by the weak harvest forecasts. The deciding factor is the falling price of competing palm and soybean oil. A key factor remains the customs-friendly biodiesel import from Argentina and Indonesia. Arguably, Argentina's new export tax on biodiesel could bring about some 15% relief. However, Indonesia is still holding on to its low 5% export tariff. The pending dispute in the World Trade Organization (WTO) will not be resolved in time. About the height of the actual rapeseed crop still decide outstanding weather risks during the maturity and harvest phase.
