IGC estimates soybean crop unchanged – stock prices give little

Soy harvest volumes by 2015/16, less than in the previous year, unchanged compared to the previous month

The International Grains Council estimates the soy harvest at the same level as in the previous month, but 6 million t lower than in the previous year with 316 million tonnes in 2015/16.

Record harvests from Brazil with 96 million and Argentina with 61 million tonnes in the early summer months this year and an upcoming US harvest at a reduced height of 103.7 million tonnes to more than 80% contribute to the overall result.

While the South American results considered relatively safe can be, the linked U.S. crop even with some question markis. Still not definitely it is clear how many hectares of the planned sowing area are like the rain victims. Also, the question is not answered after the flood-stricken areas. In the next few weeks drier and warmer weather development could benefit the U.S. soybeans. The month of August is significantly important for the level of earnings because of Blüh - and pod formation phase.

On the demand side is China the focus of interest. Chinese imports are estimated at 78 million tonnes, approximately 4 million tonnes more than in the previous year. Thus, China denies rd.  64% of world trade in soybeans.

Total consumed 314 million tonnes of soybeans on the world level . In Brazil and United States, processed the half in their own country and a part of them exported as soybean meal and soybean oil. In Argentina the processing share is about 80%. China consumes 90 million tonnes of soybeans and about a quarter of world production rd.. There are also further imports of oilseeds and vegetable oils.

The current economic difficulties in China could bring the current estimates still in the on the consumption side.

The supply situation at the world level is always still very high with a slightly higher closing stock of 48 million tonnes, even if the current IGC estimate to 4 million tonnes compared to the previous month was cut short.

For the spring 2016 expect a further increase in the soybean harvest to 98 million tonnes in Brazil, while Argentina a return is estimated at 57 million tonnes.

Which in July under the impression of continuous rain in the U.S. soy belt higher soya prices but lately something gave, but just barely below the elevated level.  The pressure from South America and the high dollar rate impairing of competition have limited only the stock exchange prices in Chicago under pressure set. The ongoing U.S. sales from old and new crop enable market observers repeatedly in amazement. The low supply inventories in importing countries of consumption are background for sustained demand. This includes Europe with his uncertain of the euro, which could further increase the import goods.

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