China is threatening US soya imports with protective tariffs - an own goal? The trade dispute China -USA escalates. In the first attempt, China did not include soya on the list of imported US imports. It was tempting to say that the Chinese responded with caution to US tariffs. But the escalation has its own laws: what is the most painful way to hit the enemy, even if it hurts you? The background: China will be around in the course of this year. Import 100 million tonnes of soybeans ; that is more than 60% of world trade. Rd. 35 million t are regularly from the USA. The rest is imported from South America with Brazil and Argentina at the top.China's own soy production amounts to 14 million tons per year. For more than a decade, the Chinese government, contrary to other self-indulgence efforts, has agreed to be dependent on imports . One imports soybeans in the first line and processes the deliveries in the own country. The soya oil goes straight into the food chain and soybean meal moves into the growing pig farming. The USA should after the cultivation plans 2018 approx. Harvest 115 million t . Of this, just over 60 million tonnes are exported . The export pressure is high, especially as there are still high stocks from the old harvest .The import duty on US beans makes the product less attractive compared to imports from South America . It should be noted this year that, due to drought, recent estimates indicate that Argentina will harvest less than 40 million tonnes compared to previous years, which averaged around 55 million tonnes. Whole soybeans are only carried out on a small scale from 5 to 7 million t , but in the first line the products soybean meal, soybean oil or biodiesel made from soybean oil. Brazil is in the final stages of this year's soybean harvest, which is estimated at a record 118 million tonnes . On the average of the 3 previous years, approx. 110 million t harvested.Brazilian production has risen steadily in recent years. The export amounts to 60 to 70 million t of unprocessed goods. In view of the numbers, it becomes clear that China will remain dependent on US imports and the USA on exports to China . Other countries are not very suitable due to their low potential. For EU imports of approx. 10 million tonnes of soybeans and 20 million tonnes of soybean meal come first in the South American countries, with a focus on Argentina in the case of soybean meal. Supplies from the US often fail due to the lack of EU approval of many genetically modified varieties.The finding that a trade dispute harms all the parties involved is simply due to the converse conclusion that the growing trade relationships have arisen from the successful search for profit of previous years . May one hope for reason and insight?
