USDA estimates oilseed supply lower in 2021/22. In its Jan.22 estimate, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) reduced the oilseed harvest in 2021/22 to around 619 million t (previous month 627.6 million t). However, the consumption is estimated to be slightly reduced at 526 million t. The final stock is estimated at 107 million t (previous month 114 million t). In terms of figures, the supplies last for 74 days (previous year 82 days). The decisive correction compared to the previous month is due to the reduced harvests in the soy sector with 372.56 million t (previous month 381.8 million t). Compared to the previous year, the current result is still 15 million t higher. The cuts are mainly due to the La Niña drought in South America. Brazil lost around -5 million t and Argentina around -3 million t compared to the previous month's estimate. Nevertheless, the South American soybean harvest still remains at a record level.On the import side , China is at the forefront with barely an increase of 103 million tonnes of soybeans or around 60% of world trade. The reduced Chinese pig population has slowed down the usual import growth of 3 to 5 million tons per year. For several years now, the EU-27 has been importing 15 million tonnes of beans and 17 million tonnes of soybean meal, which have not changed much. When it comes to soybean exports , Brazil remains in first place with an expected future volume of 94 million t. In addition, there are 17 million tonnes of soybean meal. The USA expects an export reduction of beans by 6 million t to 55.8 million t in 2021/22. The US soybean meal exports change only slightly to 12.7 million t. The USDA estimates global rapeseed production to be slightly higher than in the previous month at 69.3 mln t , around 4 mln t less than in the previous year. The decisive factor is the Canadian rapeseed harvest, which has fallen from 19.5 to 12.6 million t due to the heat.Canadian rapeseed exports are falling from 10.5 to 5.3 million t . In the EU , the rapeseed harvest is estimated at 17.35 million t . Due to the global shortage of rapeseed, the EU import requirement is downgraded to just under 5 million t. Imports of more than 6 million t would be necessary to cover normal consumption. In the case of the other oilseeds, the increasing production of sunflower seeds (+7 million t compared to the previous year) is of regional importance. Production focuses on Russia and Ukraine with a share of almost 60%. The cultivation in the south-east European EU countries reaches a share of 17%. In the meantime, the consumption of sunflower oil in the human diet is number one. Support comes from the relative price worthiness of the higher quality oil. Palm oil: The USDA has reduced global palm oil production by -1 mln t compared to the previous month to an estimated 75.5 mln t.The main decrease comes from Malaysia with -1 mln t to 18.7 mln t, while for Indonesia the estimate remains the same at 44.5 mln t. Both countries together are responsible for more than 84% of world production. With 3.1 million t (previous year 2.8 million t) Thailand is also contributing to the increase in supply quantities. The consumption of palm oil increases only slightly. The ending stocks change little. The rapeseed prices on the Paris stock exchange have ended their speculative soaring above the € 800 mark with strong withdrawals. The prices for the February 22 date are around 760 € / t. The further downward trend for the following months goes back to 570 € / t in the month of Aug.-2022 . After a brief period of weakness, the prices for soybeans and soybean oil on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose again. However, the soybean meal prices continue to tend to be weak and are quoted at the equivalent of € 416 / t with a downward trend for the following months.After the previous price surge, palm oil prices are falling again, but remain at a high level.
