USDA: above-average global oilseed supply, rising inventories
In the Dec. 18 issue of the monthly estimates of the oilseeds market, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) once again comes to an above-average result of the global supply situation in the oilseeds sector . Soy, rapeseed, peanut, cottonseed, sunflower, palm kernel and a few other small oilseeds are on the order of 600 million tonnes. The increase over the previous year is +4.4%.
Inventories increase by 10% to just under 130 million tonnes and signal a comfortableSupply situation.
At just under 370 million tonnes, or 62%, soybean accounts for the largest share of the global oilseed market. Production is estimated to be 8.8% higher than in the previous year. The United States, Brazil and Argentina make a major contribution to this with 50% of world production.
Worldwide rapeseed production fell from 74 to 70 million tonnes , mainly due to the weak EU harvest of just 19 million tonnes instead of the previous 23 million tonnes. The scarcity in this sub-market is compensated by the extensive interchangeability between the oilseeds.
This year 2018/19 is expected to produce an above-average sunflower harvest, which is caused by outstanding results in Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the South-East EU .The remaining oilseeds achieve well average harvest numbers.
Oilseed processing estimates the USDA 3.1% higher than in the previous year. The soybean port of China , which is growing steadily in former times, is estimated at approx . 90 million tonnes , compared to previous estimates of 104 million tonnes. The Chinese import share is still around. 60% of global trade . Beneficiaries of the China-US trade dispute are the South American countries.
For the subsector of vegetable oils, the palm oil market with a market share of approx. To add 36%. Together with soybean oil , the two oils reach a production share of approx. two thirds of world production . Palm oil production reached a record high of 73 million tonnes in 2018/19, up 4.2% on the previous year . Rapeseed oil only manages to reach approx. 14%.
The stock market prices for oilseed rape and soy are still in tight lows at a low level under the impression of the above-average supply situation and the fallen palm oil and crude oil prices . Short-term hopes are set for a possible revival of US soybean sales to China, but the price swings are limited. The rape courses in Paris are struggling to keep the mark of 370 € / t. Winnipeg's canola listing continues to miss the critical level of $ 500 / $ 500converted 320 € / t.
The forward rates in the spring months of 2019 show only modest rates of increase.
