Global pork production to decline in 2024

Less pork in the world The global pork market has been severely affected over the last 5 years by the ASF outbreak in China and the subsequent rapid rebuilding of animal populations. At first, a doubling of Chinese imports caused unusual price increases, but these subsequently fell back to lower prices with an equally rapid decline in imports. In 2024, China will remain the world's largest producer with a slightly reduced pork production of 55.2 million, accounting for 48% of world production. Nevertheless, internal production is not enough to cover the now subdued consumption of 57.3 million t (previous year 58.7 million t). Imports including Hong Kong fall to 2.5 million t. Chinese pork production is currently in an economic loss phase. Despite repeated government purchases of stocks, prices could not be brought back to a cost-covering level. By government order, stocks are to be further reduced over the course of 2024. Imports of certain cuts are cheaper than expensive domestic production.In the EU-27, as the second largest pork producing area, production is only estimated at 20.7 million t in 2024 (previous year 21.5 million t). EU consumption continues to fall to 17.7 million t, compared to 18.7 million t in 2021. Despite increased pig prices, increasing costs, animal husbandry requirements and sales problems have led to a significant reduction in sow and pig populations in all major EU member states. Exports to third countries have fallen from the previous 5.5 million t to 3.1 million t. Livestock census results indicate further decline in production. The third largest pork producer USA is in a financial loss phase at the turn of the year 2023/24 with converted pork prices of the equivalent of €0.9/kg. There are also health problems. The pig stocks are being withdrawn. This happens most clearly when the sow herds are reduced at -3.3%. Nevertheless, the USDA estimates that with the help of productivity improvements, US pork production in 2024 can be maintained at the previous year's level of 12.7 million t. Consumption is estimated at 10.1 million tonnes.The USDA estimates net exports at 2.6 million t. Great expectations continue to be placed on imports from Mexico, which is also being courted by Brazil. Brazil wants to expand its pork production to 4.7 million tons in 2024. With little change in domestic consumption, exports are expected to increase to 1.5 million t (previous year: 1.4 million t). The Brazilian pig prices of the equivalent of €1.60/kg offer favorable conditions for expanding production given the lower feed costs in the country. Canada will only just be able to maintain its pork production of around 2 million tonnes in 2024. Production has been declining for several years. Exports of 1.3 million tons are also falling. Global pig prices currently range from €0.90/kg in North America to €1.6/kg in Brazil, an average of €2/kg in the EU to €2.35/kg in China

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