USDA: Little Movement in Global Pork Market In its latest quarterly preview of the global pork market, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast little change from the Apr. 23 forecast and previous results. Pork production in selected important countries is estimated at 114.75 million t (previous year 114.39 million t). The USDA estimates consumption at 113.83 million t (previous year 113.22 million t). The worldwide trading volume is reduced to 10.75 million t (previous year 10.95 million t). Overall, a clear calming down in the global pork market can be observed. As always, the decisive development comes from the world's largest production area , China, with an unchanged 56 million t or a share of 50%. Although the population collapse caused by the ASF has been made up for, other factors are now slowing down further development. Chinese pig prices are too low in relation to production costs. Considerable losses are made in the face of many expensive new buildings. The low economic growth with a striking youth unemployment rate of 20%. slows consumption.Nevertheless, 2.3 million t of cheap cuts are still imported. In the second largest production area , the EU-27, with 21.5 million tons, pork production fell by 2.8% according to USDA estimates. A number of factors have contributed to this: Chinese import restrictions, exploding feed and energy costs due to the war, a significant reduction in domestic consumption and desired changes in animal husbandry conditions with an uncertain outcome in terms of ultimate design and financing. Recently, above-average pork prices have made international sales insufficiently competitive. In the USA, the third-largest production area, the earlier upward trend has more or less come to a standstill. In this case, too, rising production costs and declining domestic and foreign demand limit market development. The same applies to Canada , which has to export around 70% of its declining production. In contrast, things are clearly improving in Brazil .Production is expected to increase by 2.5% to 4.46 million t in 2023 and exports by as much as 15% to 1.5 million t. Domestic consumption is declining in favor of cheaper chicken meat. In terms of the importing countries, the two countries of interest besides China are Japan with stagnating 1.47 million t and Mexico with slightly increasing import requirements of 1.31 million t. The increased price level in the EU-27 is causing increasing difficulties in serving these import markets.
