Pork market at the turn of the year 2021-22 The development of German pork prices in 2021 began with slaughter-related prices of 1.19 € / kg, reached the line of 1.50 € / kg in the second quarter and slipped to the level of 1 in the autumn. 20 € / kg. The reasons for the recent low price level lie in China's import ban as a result of the ASP, in the Covid-related restrictions on slaughter, processing and marketing as well as in the increasing supply of pork in the EU internal market, not least driven by the increase in production in Spain. At the international level , too, the quotations in important production areas fell significantly. In the USA , prices fell from around € 2 / kg in the summer to € 1.20 / kg at the end of the year. Canada is experiencing a similar drop in prices. Brazil was also unable to maintain the price level of over € 1.50 / kg and recently fell to € 1.20 / kg.The main background is the development of production and prices in China . The rebuilding of Chinese production led to a drop in prices from the equivalent of € 6 / kg to less than € 3 / kg with reduced demand. The high Chinese import volumes and import prices have been drastically cut with serious consequences for the exporting countries concerned. For the market and price development in 2022 , the livestock determinations provide basic information. China's Ministry of Agriculture sets a target of 41 million sows as the target. This is not enough for self-sufficiency with pork, but it should serve to stabilize prices again at a cost-covering level of over € 3 / kg under Chinese conditions. The shortfall can be imported relatively inexpensively at a price of 2.20 € / kg for mostly less valuable pieces. The livestock census on Dec 1, 2021 in the United States showed a 4% drop in herds. For the 1stIn the first half of 2022, prices are expected to rise again with seasonally increasing consumption and below-average cold store stocks. The forward prices on the Chicago stock exchange are already trading again at 1.60 € / kg in April 22nd. Brazil will benefit from Russia's duty-free 100,000 tonnes of pork imports in the first half of 2022. Brazilian pork production is not expected to increase as much in 2022. According to the calculations of the EU Commission, pork production will hardly increase in the EU-27; only small increases are expected in Spain. The livestock census in Nov. 2021 showed that for Germany a decline in the pig population of 4% compared to the May count. In a two-year comparison (November 2020 not comparable due to the congestion) , a stock reduction of around 9% can be determined; the number of breeding sows has decreased by 12% in the same period.In the herd group of pregnant sows and gilts, a decrease of 7.5 to 8.7% was found compared to the previous year. In the fattening pigs from the piglet stage to less than 80 kg LG, a decrease of between 8 and 10% can be observed. With imports of slaughter pigs from Belgium, Denmark and the Netherlands still low, the average weekly slaughter will fall between 740,000 and 800,000 pigs in 2022 (previous year 835,000). While cold store stocks can still be reduced at the beginning of the coming year, rising seasonal demand may lead to shortages, especially in the fresh meat sector and the stock build-up phase for the barbecue season. Uncertainties remain: how long and how strong will the Covid-related restrictions have an impact and what is the development of the spread of ASF?
