Oct 2022: USDA estimates 2023 global pork production to be 1% higher The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its latest Oct. issue estimated global pork production for the year to be 1% higher than the previous year. China dominates with around 47% of production. The EU hits a declining 20% and the US comes in at 11%. Brazil increases its production to 4% market share. In Russia, production is stagnating at around 3.5%. China has rebuilt its pig herds after the ASF slump, but has not yet returned to where it started in 2018. After a phase of turbulent growth with intermittent ruinous price slumps in previous years, only a limited controlled increase has recently been permitted. Chinese pork production is estimated at around 52 million tons, consumption is estimated at 53.6 million tons. This results in a per capita consumption of 38.3 kg. The import requirement is expected to be 1.7 million t and fall back to 18% of global imports. In 2020, imports reached their all-time high of 5.3 million t or 45% of world trade.For the EU-27 , the USDA estimates a nearly 1% drop in production to 22.6 million t. This continues the decline in EU pig farming that has been observed for more than 5 years. The developments in the individual Member States are different, e.g. B. strong declines in Germany and significant increases in Spain. EU pork consumption is only slightly around the order of just under 19 million tonnes or 42.5 kg per inhabitant. EU pork exports are expected to fall to 3.76 million tonnes, equivalent to 36% of world exports. In 2020 it was still 5.2 million t. In the 3rd largest production area, the USA , pork production is only expected to increase moderately by 0.7% to 12.4 million tons. US consumption is estimated at a slightly increasing 10.2 million t. Per capita consumption exceeds the 30 kg mark for the first time. There are also around 52 kg of poultry meat and 26.5 kg of beef. US pork exports, the department estimates, were largely unchanged at 2.85 million tonnes, or 27% of global trade. This is offset by 0.7 million t of imports from Canada.Brazil 's pork production continues to grow at +1.6%. 4.42 million t are to be produced in 2023. Domestic consumption is estimated at around 3.1 million t or 14.6 kg per capita. There are also 35.5 kg of beef and 47 kg of poultry. Pork exports with a focus on Asian countries increase to 1.3 million t and reach almost 15% of world trade. Pork production in Canada , which has stagnated to date, will be reduced by 0.7% to 2 million tons in 2023 due to costs and sales. Exports stagnate at 1.33 million t. In Russia , pork production is stagnating at 3.8 million tons, while consumption is slightly increasing at 3.7 million tons. The upswing of previous years has slowed considerably. The economic downturn will also slow down further development in this country. The global pork market continues to develop within a narrow framework after the upheavals caused by the ASF in China in previous years. Rising costs are slowing down production. Higher consumer prices lead to restricted consumption. The global sales opportunities are rated lower.
