World market 2024: Beef and pork weaker, chicken meat gains In its quarterly forecast for 2024, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts a slight decline in beef and pork worldwide, but an increase in chicken meat. Global beef production has changed only slightly for many years. The background is the low flexibility due to the long production period and the relatively high price level, which only allows for slow adjustment reactions. The latest wave of inflation has caused beef prices to experience increased sales difficulties. The USA , as the world's largest production region, will reduce its production by almost 10% in 2024 after years of stagnation. This also contributes to the reduction in exports, which are expected to shrink to 1.3 million tonnes. In contrast, US imports continue to rise to 1.66 million t. Brazil , the world's second-largest producer, is back to the level of 2018/19 for the first time after several years of decline.As the world's largest export region, exports are expected to stabilize at the level of 2.85 million t. After the devastating wildfires, Australia has rebuilt its cattle herds to such an extent that previously normal quantities of beef are being produced of more than 2.2 million tonnes. However, exports of a targeted 1.6 million t have not yet reached the previous delivery volumes. In the EU-27, beef production has been declining continuously for years in connection with the declining dairy herd as the main supplier of calves. Export volumes have declined accordingly to just 0.57 million t. In return, 0.39 million tons of beef are imported. An increase in beef production for growing domestic consumption can only be observed in India and China . China has become the world's largest importer with 3.5 million tons of beef, or a third of world trade. Global pork production has recovered following the ASF outbreak in China .However, Chinese production in 2024, with almost 50% of world production, will fall slightly again due to declining sow numbers. Import figures are therefore expected to rise slightly again to 2.3 million tonnes. Significant declines can be seen in the EU-27 . The ASP and the future stricter conditions for animal husbandry continue to contribute to this. Nevertheless, thanks to Spain, the EU-27 remains the world's largest exporter of pork, ahead of the USA, with a trade share of just over 30%. In the USA , production is stagnating at around 12.5 million tonnes. After a temporary slump in exports, US pork producers want to return to previous delivery volumes of 3.1 million t. In Canada, pork production is only just above the 2 million t line. However, exports amounting to 1.3 million tonnes have been declining for years. In contrast, pig farming in Brazil continues to increase steadily and is estimated to reach 4.8 million t in 2024. Exports are expected to grow significantly to 1.5 million t.Chicken meat production will continue to increase in 2024, even if the previously usual 2% or more annual increases are no longer achieved today. In the leading (2nd) place, it is Brazil in particular that will increase its production to over 15 million t. The position as the world's largest exporter with a share of almost 40% of world trade continues to be expanded. In the USA , production is slowed down by the recurring poultry epidemics. Nevertheless, US farmers will slightly increase their leading global market position with 21.3 million tonnes. Exports are expected to soon approach the 25% mark of world trade. China's chicken fattening remains very reserved, with a slightly reduced volume of 13.8 million tonnes and is intended almost exclusively for domestic use. Fears about the poultry virus variant H7N9, which is dangerous to humans, have been holding back production for years. In the EU-27, smaller production increases slightly above 11 million t are still expected.The “white” meat is very inexpensive and has a favorable health image among consumers. However, EU exports continue to decline.
