USDA estimate: global pork production will rise in 2021, China remains 23% below 2018 The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates global pork production in 2021 to be 4.4% higher than in the current year. From 2020 to 2021, production at all production sites will grow between + 9.2% in China and 0.6% in the EU. But the numbers remain around the world average. 9.5% below the comparable period (2014-2018) before the Chinese ASF outbreak. Despite a renewed increase in production, the missing quantities in China with approx . 23% over the same period. At the other production sites, strong gains of 8% in the USA , over 13% in Brazil to 14% in Russia can be observed. The EU could not benefit significantly with +0.3%.China's supply development will remain crucial for the global pork market in 2021. Chinese production of 41.5 million t is forecast for 2021. Consumption should be 45.9 million t . For comparison: in the years before the ASP outbreak, production was around. 54.5 million t and the consumption almost 56 million t. There is still some catching up to do. China's remaining shortfall is to be covered by 4.5 million tons of pork imports (previous year: 4.8 million tons). Added to this is an increasing 2.85 million t of beef - and an almost constant 0.9 million t of poultry imports . China dominates the global meat market with a trade share of 28%. As the second largest pork producer, the EU is only expanding its production slightly to just over 24 million t . Consumption has stagnated for several years.Third country exports have changed little since 2019 with the increased magnitude of 3.5 million t . With the ASF-related failure of Germany, EU exports will remain below the previous year in 2021. The USA will expand its pork production to just under 13 million tons . After the setback caused by Covid19 in 2020, the USDA estimates domestic consumption at over 10 million t again . Exports are expected to keep the level of the previous year at 3.33 million t . Canada's pig farming is slowly building up. Pork production should confirm the previous year's volume of 2.11 million t in 2021. However, at 1.47 million t , exports remained below the previous year's record result. Brazil continues its expansion course in the pork sector. A production volume of 4.3 million t is targeted for 2021.Domestic consumption is expected to increase less rapidly to just 3.5 million t . The export is estimated at 1.47 million t and will only remain just below the previous year's level. Russia's sharply increased pork production is estimated at 3.6 million t in the coming year. Consumption does not increase to the same extent at 3.48 million t . The country, which used to have high import needs, is becoming more self-sufficient and is becoming an additional competitor on the international pork market. The sales areas can be found in neighboring countries and, in significant quantities, in Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand. China has high expectations. However, the Russian ASP stands in the way. On the demand side, Japan is of international importance with a stable import requirement of 1.45 million tons of pork. For the USA, Mexico, with an annual import volume of almost 1 milliont a transportable and expandable sales area. Conclusion: According to the USDA, the global pork market should recover significantly from the bottom of the previous year in 2021. In addition, production is increasing at almost all production locations, with a focus on China. But the level of care of the years before the Chinese ASF slump is far from being reached again. In the EU and especially in Germany, however , the outlook for 2021 is significantly clouded.
