USDA Preview: verhaltenene increase in the pork production in 2015

USDA estimate: global meat markets 2015 - growth halved

In its bi-annual preview to the year 2015, the USDA estimates an increase of production of beef, pork and poultry meat from + 0.7% compared to the previous year. Compared with the multi-year growth rates by approximately + 1.35% is only moderately increasing. Reasons are among others the global decline in beef production with - 1.4%, below-average development on the Chinese pork market and already perennial continued stagnation in the poultry meat market of China.

The global increase in consumption is estimated only at + 0.5%.  This beef with - 1.6% falls heavily in the weight.

The global pork market stays behind with + 1.1% under the multiannual increases around 1.5%. For 2015, there are significant market distortions as a result of the Russian import ban and other developments into account. 

China remains the world's largest pork producer with a production share of more than 50%. Substantial economic losses in 2014 in pig farming resulted in a 9% reduction of sows stocks which are adopted increasingly by the backyard attitude. The USDA still estimates an increase of Chinese pork production by + 1.5% compared to the 5-year average of 2.3% for 2015. The consumption is expected to increase just below the trends only by 2.2%. The result is a substantial increase in imports on an estimated 1 Mio.t plus Hong Kong China's 360,000 t. compared to the previous year corresponds to rd. + 200,000 t and + 17% more pork imports.   The EU as the second largest pork production area to largely maintain their production according to USDA estimates. Consumption should fall slightly. EU exports are to + 2.3% compared to the weak year 2014 higher estimated... In contrast the Commission assumes that increase in pork production in the EU by 2015 approximately 1% one and appreciates a slight increase in consumption. Exports are classified at the same level as in the year 2014. 

After the PEDv disease-related decline of production in the year 2014 is expected in the United States again with an increase in consumption and production by + 5%. Support for an increase in production is expected by the more efficient handling in dealing with the PEDv plague and by the high profits that have been achieved in the year 2014 with the pigs. The increase in consumption can be explained quite convincing with the tight supply of beef in the United States. The increase of exports by estimated + 2.5% is closely linked to the Chinese import demand, of which the United States want to cut off a piece to.

As the 4th largest producer of pork at the world level, Brazil benefits from Russia's high import needs. The Brazilian production should increase exports to 4.5% to rise to 700,000 tonnes or around + 20% in 2015. The Brazilian, who however only slightly increased consumption. Pork prices in Brazil, which are on record levels of $2 are a key control factor. Multi-annual average prices are €1.35 / kg. The Brazilian Schweinefleisch market 2015 stands or falls with the Russian import lock.

Russia Pork production should expand its own production according to the will of the Russian politicians with the help of Government support in the wake of the import lock. The USDA estimates but for 2015 only production increased by 170,000 t or + 6.4%. The Russian pork imports on 375,000 are estimated as a result of the import lock. In the year 2012, Russia imported pork around 1 million tonnes. Russian consumers will need to arrange with the shorter range.  

The Asian market outside China remains noteworthy from the import page. While the Japanese to reduce slightly their 1.2 million tons of pork imports, but for South Korea and the Philippines, there is still a little import increase potential.

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