ASP case in Germany: it was a matter of time. The confirmed ASP discovery of an already decayed wild boar carcass on German soil near the Polish border raises the question of future German export opportunities. A distinction must be made between EU internal market and third country trade. In the case of the EU internal market , the regionalization principle applies, ie a so-called core area (3 km), a hazard zone (15 km) and a buffer zone (30 km) are formed around the site, from which exports are generally not permitted. The other production areas remain unaffected. Poland has closed the borders for deliveries from Brandenburg. In the case of third country exports, however, national borders apply as delimitation, ie in the present case that the whole of Germany is excluded from exports. South Korea, Japan and Mexico made immediate use of this. But what is China doing? In the first half of 2020 Germany has approx. 407500 tons of pork of all kinds exported to third countries. That corresponds to approx. 15% of production . Over 60% of this was delivered to China, South Korea was there with over 10% and the rest is distributed over many smaller import areas. China in particular is the focus of interest. German deliveries in the 1st half of 2020 are approx. 350,000 t, double that of the previous year. With 455,000 t, Spain has an increase of approx. 140% achieved. The USA has even quadrupled its exports from China and now has approx. 480,000 t. Should there actually be a Chinese import ban for Germany, strongly growing exporting countries will be in the starting blocks . The USA and Spain are at the forefront with their growing pig populations. Brazil is also in a position to significantly increase exports. In the USA , people pay great attention to what is happening in Germany. The pork prices there have also taken a significant boost.At the same time, however, it is also noted that the German countermeasures are well prepared. Reference is made to the successful encapsulation of the epidemic in the Czech Republic and Belgium . It was possible to narrow down the infected area and eradicate the source of infection within a year. This should also be achieved with the new German site. It is still open whether the third countries can also be convinced of this control method. In any case, the political side is working on it. Information is provided transparently in order to create a basis of trust. If the import bans are nevertheless issued, there is a big problem with the less valuable parts, which are rarely sold in Germany and Europe. Heavy price pressure when selling the pigs is inevitable. Pig farmers are becoming more cautious about piglet housing. Feed companies are already holding back when purchasing grain. In the USA, prices are said to have increased in this regard.But the extent of the epidemic on German soil has not yet been conclusively clarified. So far it is a single find; it is still unclear to what extent other wild boars are affected. In the find region there are mainly pig farmers with a few animals for their own use. However, there is a larger mast facility 7 km away from the site. Otherwise the region is only sparsely populated with pigs. It is now important for all pig farmers to adhere to the hygiene measures particularly strictly and to exercise the utmost caution.
