China's slump in pork production and its worldwide impact over the next few years African swine fever (ASP) in China is estimated to cost 25-35% of its production of pork. Even if the lowest estimate is used, approx. 13.5 million t of pork are missing. By comparison, the US will generate 12.6 million tonnes in 2019 and 24 million tonnes in the EU as a whole. And another number for orientation: only 8.3 million tons of pork are traded on the world level. From the above key data it becomes clear that a compensation of the Chinese lack of demand from imports can not succeed. As a result, Chinese consumers are looking for every opportunity to find a replacement for animal protein. China's consumers are on an upward trend and are on the rise. 50 kg of fish per head and year or approx. 70 million t. The previous pork consumption is approx. 38.5 kg per head, poultry meat is 11 kg and beef 5.5 kg per head. The average egg consumption is estimated at approx. 20 kg per Chinese estimated. It can be assumed that missing pork can to a certain extent be replaced by protein alternatives.However, the resulting deficit in the pigmeat sector is so great that a full replacement can not be achieved within a short time in one's own country. So the import options remain over all protein carriers. If, in a first attempt, it is assumed for the sake of simplification that the total imports of the protein carrier can be doubled, a residual amount of 5 to 7.5 million t is still calculated. A renunciation of consumption - in whatever amount ultimately - is inevitable for some time. The shortage is leading to rising prices in all sectors concerned and worldwide. Pork prices have already increased significantly in all major export countries. The summer barbecue season has a sharpening effect with seasonal high consumption and tight supply. It is to be expected that the previous strong price increases in the EU pork market will not be the last word yet. Lack of stockpiling for the upcoming barbecue season due to lack of sufficient supply and a noticeable increase in China demand in the summer / autumn months open up further scope for price increases. In the USA, the pork prices for the delivery months of July / August 2019 are quoted at the equivalent of € 2 / kg.The previous dismantling of the Chinese herd of pigs has led to the fact that with the - slaughtered animals out of fear of loss of value - meat was certainly available. However, the reduction of sow herds of around 20% makes it clear that in the next few months to years the piglet material to be milled will be missing. The full extent of scarcity is yet to come. The question of a rebuilding of the stocks is completely unresolved because the willingness to invest in view of the continuing risk of epidemics is low. This not only applies to the small and medium-sized holdings, but also to the large corporations whose shares have fallen completely into the basement. Even if you have the courage to rebuild the stock immediately, it takes at least 1.5 years from the gilts start refurbishment to the first finished fattening pig. And then the problem of reinfection with the ASP still exists because the virus has not been eradicated. And finally, one should not lose sight of the ASP in Europe.
