COCERAL estimates EU grain harvest higher than last year

Coceral estimates EU grain harvest 2023 slightly higher than in the previous year In its 3rd forecast for early June 2023, the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (Coceral) compared the EU-27 grain harvest without GB to 273.4 million tons slightly up from the March 23 estimate. incl. Around 296.7 million t (previous year 291 million t) are forecast for GB. The ongoing close trade relations with the UK suggest including the exit country in the considerations of market and price developments. The decisive reason for the slightly increased figures is a yield that was around 1.8 dt/ha higher than in the previous year, despite the slightly smaller cultivation area. However, weather developments, the high fertilizer, plant protection and energy costs slow down earlier higher average performance. Compared to the 2022 harvest, a harvest increase of +1.9% is expected. The result thus achieves a comparatively good mean value.With lower feed consumption as a result of reduced animal stocks, the previously increased imports can be further reduced. However, third country exports will increase. In the individual Member States, the results vary widely in both directions. The decisive factor is the weather-related different yield expectations, based on very different starting positions. The changes in Hungary are extreme. While yields per hectare of 40 dt/ha were achieved last year, one can assume around 60 dt/ha based on the previous precipitation conditions. With increased acreage, the Hungarian harvest increases by 60% compared to the previous year, but still remains below the 5-year average. After last year's weak harvest, a strong harvest increase of +16.6% is forecast for Romania . The hectare yields increase from 36 to 44 dt/ha. The result is back in the area of the 5-year average.In some parts of Poland, too, unfavorable weather conditions resulted in a 3.6% lower harvest, but it still remained within the multi-year average. Spain's grain production is repeatedly hit by a drought. Compared to the already weak previous year, a further decline in production of - 33.3% is expected. The first threshing results are already available. The average hectare yields fall from last year's 32 dt/ha to this year's 22 dt/ha. In a 5-year comparison, the harvest will only be half as large. Coceral estimates Italy's grain harvest to be around +17% higher compared to the less favorable previous year. In the EU's largest production area, France, the grain harvest is estimated to be +6% higher than the unfavorable previous year . The average hectare yields are estimated at 71.5 dt/ha by 3.5 dt/ha. In addition, a slightly increased acreage at the expense of Z. beet cultivation provides more grain.The German grain harvest is down 2% on the previous year This is due to a reduced area and lower yields. A decline of -3.7% is expected for Great Britain after the well average previous year. The British are still in the good midfield. There are also significant differences between the individual types of grain. The wheat harvest in the EU-27 will increase slightly to 127.3 million t . With almost the same area yields, the increased acreage has the decisive effect. Coceral estimates the barley harvest of the EU-27 at 49.5 million t compared to the previous year with almost 52 million t. A low yield per hectare is the main justification.   With less acreage, the EU-27 maize harvest is expected to increase significantly to almost 61 million tons compared to the previous year (52 million tons) due to higher yield expectations.Earlier results of 70 million t are a long way off.