Positioning in the market in cereals - timely guidance
The decline grain prices in recent provide occasion for assessing that the grain price level to the harvest date was at least equal. So, the storage would not worth taking into account the cost. Therefore, the interest due to the current low levels play no decisive role more, provided that an appropriate liquidity is guaranteed. Alternative nominal interest rates the cost side would be something else. It follows the first realization that she must include the question of grain storage in addition to the funding and a low-loss storage technology operating individual criteria already. What experiences are making out?
The price histories clearly first in each last 4 years, that obviously year-specific levels can be based. It turns out that the average annual value is "stock to use ratio" based closely on the global supply code. Each to the end of the year or beginning of next year aim for and the prices at the new year-specific level.
A typical manifestation is also set out in the course of each year.
In the harvesting and post-harvest phase are year specific weaker shipping historical developments. In case of rising prices, the rise in weaker fails at this time. In years with an above-average estimated power layers the rates are down fast.
The turning points of the course developments decide during the period of Nov of last year to February of the following year. Generally, the highest rates are achieved here. The exception to this is 2011/12 with unusually high Dewinterizing damage.
The last section of the marketing year is already characterized by the estimates of the supply situation of the coming harvest. In the case of the expectation enhancing power layers this time span is connected with decreasing rates and vice versa. The future price level can be expressed with the help of the correlation between the supply ratio roughly "stock to use ratio" and associated the multi-annual average price levels.
An example was the year 2014/15-considered: quite early on, the supply situation was estimated at an above-average level. She calculated "stock to use ratio" indicator margin fluctuated between the 21 and 22%. Ga slightly above-average supply situation to estimate was emessen on the long-term supply number of 20.3%. Could it derive an annual average of 160 to €170 per t B wheat at the producer level in Germany.
They followed this reasoning was foreseeable, that wheat prices post-harvest phase in Germany up to €150 per t were not the supply situation in the. As well, a producer price in the average of the Federal Republic for B wheat in the direction of €180 per t would have been not just to supply.
The interpretation of these figures is differentiated to proceed. Depending on the parent - or grant region price levels and developments in Germany vary throughout. In this year of 2014/15, the Middle port locations due to the euro benefiting export situation were strongly preferred. In finishing areas, there was little difference between bread and feed wheat. In subsidy areas the price changes at the end of the year are down less, while in surplus areas in and after the harvest first significant price decreases and future compensatory stock price increases were observed. Higher-quality wheat reached much larger price increases than low quality levels this year with a preponderance of feed wheat.
The upcoming USDA report beginning May 15 to the global supply situation in 2015/16 is an appropriate opportunity to underpin a strategic market position.
