Dec 2022: USDA lower estimates for 2022/23 world grain harvest The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) again lowered its estimate for the world grain harvest in its latest Dec 22 issue. Production reaches 2,234 million t (previous year 2,284 million t). Consumption is classified at 2,253 million t (previous year 2,281 million t). Accordingly, the ending stocks fall from 615 million t in the previous year to this year's 591 million t. or 26.5% of consumption (previous year 26.9%). The calculated range of inventories is only 95 days (previous year 98 days) This year's wheat harvest with 781 million tons. is characterized by ups and downs in individual production areas. The world's largest wheat export region , Russia, achieved a result of 91 million tons or +21% more than in the previous year. This contrasts with reduced harvests in Ukraine due to the war of 20 million t or -38% and Argentina due to drought with 12.5 million t or -44%. Global wheat consumption falls to almost 790 million t (previous year 794 million t).The overstocks fall to 267 million t (previous year 276 million t). Of this, 123 million tons are stored in China alone, but these are not available for export. Wheat stocks without China are sufficient for 69 days (previous year: 76 days) and are thus below the average of the last 10 years. This scarce supply situation forms, among other things, an essential basis for the increased price level. The USDA estimates the global corn harvest at 1,161 million t or -5% below the previous year. The main reasons for the decline are the poor results in Ukraine with -36% and in the EU with -23%. In the USA, the world's largest growing region, corn production will also fall by 8% or 30 million t (US decline = 55% of the EU harvest!) . The result is a decline in exports from the USA and Ukraine and increasing EU imports. The Brazilian harvest, which is estimated to be 7% higher, is providing some relief, although the result will only be reasonably reliable in the first half of 2023. Global corn consumption estimated at 1,171 milliont estimated. In the USA alone, 305 million t and in China 295 million t are needed, together more than 50% of global use. While in China the majority is used as feed, in the USA around 38% is used for the production of bioethanol with the protein-rich by-product of DDGS (corn stillage). The global maize ending stocks fall to 298 million tons (previous year 307 million tons). Of this, 206 million tons that are not available for export are stored in China. For the rest of the world, 92 million tons remain or stocks for 31 days (previous year 38 days).
