DRV: 4th grain harvest estimate for 2023 at 42 million t In its 4th harvest estimate , the German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) reduced German grain production in 2023 to 41 million t compared to the previous month by around 1.4 million t. The result is around -3.3% below the previous year and -1.5% below the 5-year average. With a reduced area under cultivation compared to the previous year, the low expected yield of -1.8% on average has an aggravating effect. On average, an area yield of 70 dt/ha is estimated. Yield estimates vary from -1% to -6% depending on early/late ripening fruit and location. With a share of around 50% , wheat has the greatest influence on the overall result. According to the findings of the Stat. Federal Office reduced by -2.1% compared to the previous year. In terms of area yield, the DRV estimates a reduction of -0.8% to 75.2 dt/ha compared to the previous year. Overall, the wheat harvest is expected to fall to 21.87 million t (-2.9% compared to the previous year); in a 5-year comparison only a reduction of -1.8% is expected.The second largest type of grain is winter and spring barley with a share of 25%. The acreage was increased by +1.4% compared to the previous year, but the area yield is expected to be -4.9% lower. A total production of 10.8 million t is forecast. In the case of spring barley (brewing barley), a sharp drop in production of -11.6% is expected after the setback of the previous year due to area (-12.4%) and yield (0.9%). The corn sowing took place on a -6% smaller area. Expected yields of 87.1 dt/ha are slightly higher than last year's poor result of 84.1 dt/ha. Accordingly, the corn harvest is expected to be -2.5% higher, but at -5.7% will remain well below the 5-year average. The cultivation of oats was reduced by -13.4%. With an estimated yield of 45.2 dt/ha (-4.1% compared to the previous year), the total harvest is expected to decrease by -16.9%.Rye cultivation increased by +3.6% ; Higher earnings expectations that had been harbored in the previous month have been reduced to -4%. The area for triticale has fallen by -3.8%, yields should remain at the previous year's level. The harvest will decrease by -3.8% compared to the previous year. The DRV estimate is based on the area surveys of the Stat. Federal Office of May 19. 2023. The DRV has estimated the most recent area yields . The DRV particularly points out the uncertainty of the future development of precipitation for late-ripening fruits, which are still exposed to considerable yield risks. Earlier harvest results of more than 50 million tons are a thing of the past. The German grain market is only slightly above the self-sufficiency mark.
